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Where Are We Now?

Pay attention to Dale Jorgenson instead of Donald Trump

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Posted in Contemporary economics

Presidencies are the most accessible narrative that Americans possess.  We habitually tell the story of the United States by connecting up administrations from George Washington to Barack Obama and beyond. But other frames can serve as well. I’ve argued that Donald Trump’s victory was largely accidental, a combination of little-recognized trade shocks to the American economy cumulating over twenty-five years – Japan, Mexico, China – and the Hillary stopper in the bottle. Already there are signs, in the business arrangements Trump has made, that the 70-year-old trademark baron doesn’t expect to serve a second term. The likelihood is that Trump