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October
14,
2007 |
David
Warsh, Editor |


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An Enormous Pearl, a Little Giant, a Vanishing Hand
There is something a little eerie in reading about the life
of Henry Poor, business analyst, co-founder of the business
data firm Standard & Poor's. Here's the précis:
Henry Varnum Poor, who lived from 1812 until 1905, enjoyed
a long, varied, and quite unique business career. He helped
build the first Maine railroads; he was the first secretary
of the Union Pacific Railroad; and he promoted railroads
in the West and South. His investment house was the
first agent for the English Association of American Bond
and Shareholders. He was an editorial writer for the
New York Times. He wrote numerous authoritative
and forceful works on current economic problems. Most significant,
however, to the historian and especially to the student
of entrepreneurial history was Poor's work as editor of
the American Railroad Journal from 1849 to 1862 and
as publisher of the Manual of the Railroads of the United
States from 1868 until 1887.
As editor, compiler and analyst Henry Poor
played a dual role in the highly dynamic business life of
nineteenth-century America. In the first place, he pioneered
in providing accurate and reliable business information and
thus performed a new and essential function in a business
world growing increasingly complex and specialized. The information
he provided soon became invaluable to businessmen, promoters,
entrepreneurs, and especially to investors.... Secondly, through
the pages of the Journal and other periodicals and
newspaper, Henry Poor carefully described and analyzed the
profound economic changes going on about him and in which
he was taking part.
The writer was Poor's great-grandson, Alfred Chandler Jr.,
who lived from 1918 until 2007, and who also enjoyed a long
and varied career in business -- as a business historian.
In 1950, when his biographical essay appeared in Explorations
in Entrepreneurial History,
Chandler was just starting out on his career. In due course,
he would recapitulate in the twentieth century the broad outlines
of his grandfather's career in the nineteenth, writing as
a historian rather than as a participant, taking as his topic
the emergence of the large multidivisional corporation, not
in one industry, but in many. Chandler's Harvard dissertation
on Poor represented "an initial grain of sand around
which he constructed, layer by layer over the next forty years,
an enormous pearl of sustained scholarship," as his student
Thomas K. McCraw put in the introduction to a commemorative
anthology published in 1988..
Strategy and Structure: Chapters in the History of the
Industrial Enterprise,
about the evolution of four giant firms -- Dupont, General
Motors, Standard Oil (of New Jersey); and Sears, Roebuck,
appeared in 1962. In 1977 came The Visible
Hand: The Managerial Revolution in American Business,
with its argument that corporate hierarchies had replaced
markets for purposes of coordinating activities and allocating
resources in industrial economies. And finally, in 1990,
came Scale and Scope: The Dynamics of Industrial
Enterprise -- A History 1880s-1940s,
a comparative history of managerial capitalism in the United
States, the United Kingdom and Germany.
All the while Chandler was teaching (Massachusetts Institute
of Technology, Johns Hopkins University, Harvard Business
School), editing (ten volumes of presidential papers -- four
on Theodore Roosevelt and six on Dwight D. Eisenhower), going
to committee meetings and inspiring several generations of
historians, not to mention fledgling executives, with his
self-confidence, good manners and graceful mien. As McCraw
described it, "It is not that he has ever
retreated from controversy, but that he has chosen to exert
his influence through quiet example rather than strident self-promotion.
Chandler's most striking trait, in all his personal relations,
remains a pronounced lack of pretentiousness. From the beginning
of his career, his primary motivation has been an abiding
and sometimes obsessive intellectual curiosity."
The table of contents of Visible Hand gives you a feeling for the work. The preamble:
the General Merchant in the Colonial World; Managing
Traditional Production; the Plantation, an Ancient Form of
Large Scale Production; an Integrated Textile Mill, a New
Form of Large-Scale Production; the Springfield Armory, Another
Prototype of the Modern Factory.
And, then, the big change: the Revolution in Transportation
and Communication [railroads, postal service, telegraph and
telephone]; the Revolution in Distribution and Production
[everything from department stores and mail-order houses to
assembly lines and electric motors]; the Integration of Mass
Production with Mass Distribution [from canning and refrigeration
of food to various merger movements, starting in the 1880s,
and culminating in the trust-busting of the early 1900s];
the Management and Growth of Modern Industrial Enterprise
[the evolution of middle management and top management].
This was the world of the Fortune 500, of big unions, big
government, and various countervailing powers. Again,
McCraw (himself a prize-winning historian of regulation):
"[Chandler was] more interested in Henry Varnum Poor
than in Henry George, Pierre du Pont more than Thomas Edison,
Alfred Sloan more than Henry Ford."
Chandler died last spring, at 88. He is scheduled to
be remembered in a service at Harvard University's Memorial
Church this week. Almost as poignant as an athlete dying
young is a much-honored scholar, dying just as his life's
work is superseded by something new. For the fact is that
Chandler's story of the triumphal evolution of big business
began to come apart in the 1980s -- the era of deregulation
and corporate "restructuring." He had the satisfaction
of seeing economists begin to work seriously on his concerns
in those days, though at a much higher level of abstraction
-- Oliver Williamson at first, then the band of gifted theorists
who rebuilt the neoclassical theory of the firm under the
broad heading of "contract theory."
But trends towards renewed entrepreneurial activity and the
disruption of long-established industries only accelerated
in the '90s, as Chandler labored on two last works, lively
histories of the chemical and electronics industries in the
twentieth century. By the time he finished, outsourcing, downsizing,
upspeeding, leasing and other such practices had become the
norm even in these venerable businesses. Here is how Richard
Langlois, of the University of Connecticut put in his 2004
Schumpeter lectures in Graz (which were subsequently published
as The Dynamics of Industrial Capitalism: Schumpeter, Chandler,
and the New Economy):
It has become exceedingly clear that the
late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries are witnessing
a revolution at least as important as, but quite different
from, the one... Schumpeter and Chandler extolled. Strikingly,
the animating principle of this new revolution is precisely
an unmaking of the corporate revolution. Rather than
seeing the continued dominance of multi-unit firms in which
managerial control spans a large number of vertical stages,
we are seeing a dramatic increase in vertical specialization
-- a thoroughgoing "de-verticalization" that is
affecting traditional industries as much as the high-tech
firms of the late twentieth century. In this respect,
the visible hand, understood as managerial coordination of
multiple stages within a corporate framework, is fading into
a ghostly translucence.
Journalists, too, naturally covered each new episode in the
story of industrial organization that unfolded in capital
markets. As it happens, an editor of Chandlerian proportions
in the world of business magazines, James W. Michaels, died
earlier this month in New York City at 86. For nearly forty
years, he was the editor of Forbes magazine.
Forbes was the first
modern business magazine, founded in 1917, by newspaperman
B.C. Forbes. Clarence Barron's weekly, Barron's,
followed in 1919, the Kiplinger Washington Letter in 1923. But their shared success in the Roaring Twenties brought better-funded
competitors into the market -- Business Week in 1929, Fortune in 1930. By the time Jim Michaels joined the magazine,
in 1954, Forbes
was a distant fifth or sixth behind its rivals. Michaels had
been an ambulance driver for the American Field Service in
Burma during World War II. He had stayed on to cover
India for the United Press wire service. (He was traveling
with Gandhi when the Indian leader was assassinated.) Like
Chandler, Michaels had identified business corporations as
uniquely powerful engines of change in the post-war world,
and he settled easily into a life as a business reporter and,
after 1961, editor of the magazine.
Supported at every step by a gifted publisher, the colorful
Malcolm Forbes, Michaels gradually rebuilt the bi-weekly into
the market leader, by emphasizing an investor-oriented commonsense
(often described as "contrarian"), stressing measurement
and discouraging managerial hagiography. He made everything
short (he was short himself, of stature and attention span),
sensing long before others that he was involved in an intense
competition for readers' time. He strived mightily to understand
what was happening in markets, just as Chandler did, but he
did this not by consulting economists, whom he considered
pointy-heads, but by depending on access to gifted investors
(Gerald Loeb and Warren Buffet among them) and his own keen
intellect. He liked to describe the magazine's role as being
akin to that of a drama critic. Forbes attracted plenty of talented reporters during those
years, including Esther Dyson, George Gilder, Allan Sloan
and Gretchen Morgenson, and exported many of them to other
publications. But its strongest suit remained its "yardsticks,"
and its various "rich lists," plus, of course, a
series of memorable judgments about what was likely to happen
next in financial markets.
Ultimately, though, neither history nor journalism is a satisfactory
substitute for penetrating economics. For nearly twenty-five
years, the chase has been on to give a satisfactory account
of the phenomenon whose rise, beginning in the nineteenth
century, Alfred Chandler so thoroughly documented: the large
multi-division corporation, hierarchically administered by
salaried managers; and its subsequent collapse towards the
end of the twentieth century as the dominant business organization,
amid the beginnings of a "new economy." Langlois
calls this the problem of "the disappearing hand."
What exactly is the disappearing hand? To describe
what it is that firms actually do, Langlois, a very interesting
thinker in his own right, has borrowed from "cybernetic"
theories of organization the concept of "buffering":
big corporations insulate the organization, especially a high-volume
business, from outside shocks that might disrupt its activities
-- not just hold-up threats, a favorite problem of Oliver
Williamson, in which producers and their suppliers fail to
come to terms because each fears the enhanced bargaining power
of the other, but many other sources of variation as well,
everything from the quality of feedstocks to the availability
of finance.
In a thin market -- one in which there are relatively few
buyers and sellers -- Langlois says the requirement for buffering
will be very great, causing firms in many industries to seek
to "do it all" -- in the extreme form of the early
petroleum companies, for example, to do everything from prospecting
for oil to refining it and selling gasoline directly to the
customer. Administrative hands don't get more visible
than that. As market thickness increases, however -- as the
extent of the market grows, as the number of firms competing
to render specialized services increases, as communication
and transportation become swifter and more reliable -- less
and less buffering will be required. The weight of visible
hand of giant corporations gradually will lessen. The role
of markets will increase. Spot markets will emerge for nearly
everything and every skill.
The literature on the economics of organizations has become
complicated, broad and deep. It is on the verge of coalescing
into a field in its own right. No longer does it concern itself
simply with business executives' decisions; now bureaucrats
and politicians are fair game too. The very meanings of employment,
career, compensation and workforce are being rethought. Deep
politics lie ahead. Some day, just as in finance, textbooks
will replace case studies. Perhaps a future Alfred Chandler
will write intellectual histories of economics -- and a future
James Michaels will assign writers to report on them.
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