The United State filed a complaint last week against China
with the World Trade Organization. Hidden subsidies, including
special tax rebates and tariffs, not to mention a monetary
policy aimed at keeping China's currency, the yuan, artificially
low, were conferring unfair advantages on its exporters, the
US claimed. The charges were an expression of exasperation,
an escalation of rhetoric in a longstanding conversation previously
dominated by strategic bilateral bargaining.
It was not the first time a nation had been accused of taking
advantage of a wide array of policies to secure advantage
in the global marketplace. Suspicions of a similar sort were
harbored against the US in many quarters in the years after
World War II.
Indeed, after Edmund (Ned) Phelps, in his Nobel lecture,
in December, suggested that the lack of dynamism in the European
economy today stemmed from, among other deficits, a scarcity
of home-grown university-educated entrepreneurs, Lance Taylor,
of the New School University, took to the letters page of
the Financial Times to reply, when columnist Martin Wolf
celebrated Phelps.
It was true the European economies had not played a leading
role in the development of information technology, Taylor
allowed, but European "corporatism" was not the problem. Instead,
American industrial policy, operating mainly through its Defense
Department, had supplied the key advantage.
"Coming out of the Second World War," Taylor wrote, "the
UK and the US were on an equal footing with regard to IT (Turing
vs. von Neumann, Colossus v. Eniac). Knowledge of valves vs.
tubes was the same on both sides of the pond. Then macroeconomics
and policy weighed in. The British did not have the resources
to keep up, and the Continent at that stage was out of the
game.
"Largely through public (read defense) support of leading
corporations, the US took three big steps: development of
programming and computer systems for national security purposes
(concentrated on IBM); transistors (Bell Labs); and the creation
of the Internet (initially for the military in the Pentagon's
Advanced Research Project's Agency Network, Arpanet)."
Taylor might have added a fourth big US step, the personal
computer revolution, led by Bill Gates, but then those developments
had little or nothing to do with national security. He might
have noted, too, that the sheer size of the American home
market has been an enormous advantage. Broadly speaking, though,
he's right, despite having left out the names of any
number of important business entrepreneurs. US corporatism
during the Cold War, properly understood, put the European
variety in the shade.
But then, the lack of attention to the interaction between
policy and entrepreneurial activity had been among Ned Phelps'
most important points when he spoke in Stockholm. European
economic policy since 1945 had taken over-many of its cues
from neoclassical economics, said Phelps, (instead of the
modern economics in whose creation he had participated) with
the consequence that the role of independent entrepreneurs
had been seriously neglected. Neoclassical growth theory,
in particular, "was conspicuous in having no people in it."
"It explained the accumulation and investment of physical
capital yet the driving force in that story -- increases in
knowledge, called 'technology' -- rains down exogenously, like
manna from heaven, and the selection among new technologies
is instantaneous, costless and error-free. Though in
fact crucial for growth, a human role over a vast range of
activities involving management, judgment, insight, intuition
and creativity is absent."
I thought of this exchange last week while reading Barry
Eichengreen's new book, The European Economy since 1945:
Coordinated Capitalism and Beyond.
Eichengreen, 55, is professor of economics and political science
at the University of California at Berkeley. He is an expert
on international finance in the interwar years (author of
Golden Fetters: the Gold Standard and the Great
Depression 1919-1939 and
Elusive Stability: Essays in the History of International
Finance 1919-1939), he worked his way up through the 1970s (Global
Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods)
to the present day. The new book takes on some of the most
interesting questions in the world today.
For thirty years after 1945, Western Europe grew like a mushroom;
then, after 1973, it slowed down. How? Why? Why, too, after
the collapse of central planning in the 1980s, and the integration
of Eastern Europe into the European Economic Community in
the 1990s, has this huge single market failed to re-attain
anything like the rate of growth of those early golden years?
What are the prospects for the future?
Eichengreen ascribes much of the growth to an extended period
of catch-up. The '30s and '40s, depression and war, were especially
hard on Europe. There was no chance to emulate the American
example. But after the war, there was on hand "an extraordinary
backlog of technological knowledge ready for Europe's use."
European firms licensed technology, copied American methods
of mass production, and adopted personnel management practices,
and rapidly closed the gap -- a situation captured nicely by
historian Alexander Gerschenkron in a famous essay on "the
advantages of backwardness," who argued that that Banks and
States could plant where, elsewhere, Entrepreneurs had plowed.
This European catch-up didn't just happen, Eichengreen asserts;
it could just as easily have gone off the rails. It required
a wide array of what economists like to call institutions,
not just well-established property rights and a tradition
of respect for "the rule of law," but also "solidaristic trade
unions, cohesive employers associations and growth-minded
governments working together to mobilize savings, finance
investment and stabilize wages at levels consistent with full
employment.
Thus in Western Europe, planning boards, state holding companies
and industrial conglomerates were required to coordinate "big
push" investments in several interdependent industries at
the same time in order to take advantage of falling costs
(coal, steel, machine tools, consumer durables, for example).
In Eastern Europe, wholesale nationalization and central planning
would suffice. On both sides of the Iron Curtain, though,
the results were more or less the same. Europeans who, at
the beginning of the period, had heated their homes with coal,
cooled their food with ice, and who, in many cases, lacked
indoor plumbing, saw their standard of living skyrocket. Incomes
soared, hours worked fell by a third, life expectancy grew
dramatically. As Harold MacMillan famously told Britons in
the general election of 1959, "You never had it so good."
Until 1973, that is. Then, growth slowed down, in the United
States, too, but especially in Europe. In Eastern Europe,
it precipitated the collapse of central planning and, with
it, authoritarian regimes, as well. Growth based on capital
formation had been rapid; now it gave way to innovation-based
growth that was slow. The opportunities for catch-up had been
exhausted. The Continent found itself having to search
for bold new ways of sustaining growth. This was hard enough
to do in Western Europe. In Eastern Europe, it was impossible.
And so communism collapsed.
The body of the book is a superb chronicle of the evolution
of these institutions of "coordinated capitalism:" the political
economy of the Marshall Plan; the creation of the European
Coal and Steel Community of 1948; the 1949 devaluations and
the European Payment System; the European Free Trade Association
of 1960 and the first inklings of monetary union; the incorporation
of the European periphery in the early 1960s (Spain, Portugal
and Greece) and the discontent in Eastern Europe over a longer
period of time (Yugoslavia, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland);
the overemotional '60s; the various payments crises of the
early 1970s and the end of pegged exchange rates and
the Bretton Woods system; the European Monetary System, the
Delors Report, the Maastrict Treaty and, finally, amid giddy
excitement, the twenty-first century transition to a single
currency and a European Central Bank.
The problem, Eichengreen notes, is that the very institutions
that were created to facilitate catch-up -- big banks, strong
unions, indicative planning by government boards -- no longer
worked well in an era of rapid technological change. The studied
tripartism and devotion to the principles of worker entitlement
was ill-adapted to a world in which one after another Asian
nation successfully entered global markets, and the United
States honed its traditional advantages. Despite the much-heralded
Lisbon Agenda of 2000, intended to make the European economy
the most competitive in the world by 2010, the Continent resisted
reform and endured years of recession. Nor did it meet innovation
with open arms. After private equity funds emerged as major
engine of corporate restructuring in the U.S., German Social
Democratic Party chairman Franz Müntefering condemned them
as "swarms of locusts that fall on companies, stripping them
bare before moving on.":
As is fitting in a book about the macroeconomic management
of national economies, Eichengreen's emphasis at every point
is on the human role "over a vast range of activities
involving management, judgment, insight, intuition and creativity"
-- but only in government. Almost completely missing, however,
are businessmen and entrepreneurs. Business historian Alfred
Chandler doesn't even make the bibliography. As if to
prove Ned Phelps' point, the human beings who actually created
European growth in the years after 1945 -- the men (and, occasionally,
women) who opened the factories, met the payrolls, searched
for new markets and created them -- are conspicuous by their
absence from his account. His economy has no industries to
speak of, much less particular cynosure companies. His entrepreneurs
operate in the public sector.
This is not Eichengreen's fault, I think. He goes about as
far as the theory he inherited permits; the book suffers from
its shortcomings, not his. As a Yale PhD of 1979, Eichengreen
went to school and then entered professional life in the last
days of the era of which Ned Phelps complained (and against
which Yale professors Richard Nelson and Sidney Winters, among
others, valiantly battled) -- the era of exogenous technological
change, when the growth of knowledge was simply "in the air,"
something that government might have paid for, but that otherwise
was freely available to those who would use it for manufacturing
purposes, "instantaneously, costlessly and error-free." There
was, in other words, no economics of knowledge. No wonder,
then, that his index doesn't mention "universities" or "higher
education."
As a history of coordination, then, The European Economy
since 1945, is unmatched.
As a history of European capitalism, West and East, inevitably,
it leaves much to be desired. It will be compared to
Jeffrey Frieden's Global Capitalism: Its Fall and
Rise in the Twentieth Century
and Tony Judt's Postwar: A History of Europe Since
1945. Eichengreen's
is the one for those of us who take transnational institutions
seriously.
Meanwhile, a glimpse of what lies ahead was to be found last
month in a pair of articles by Michael Spence, which appeared
on op-ed page of The Wall Street Journal. Spence, a Nobel
laureate, is professor emeritus at the Graduate School of
Business at Stanford University, and chairman of the Independent
Commission on Growth in Developing Countries, a blue-ribbon
panel of 21 practitioners sponsored by the governments of
Sweden, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, the William and
Flora Hewlett Foundation and the World Bank.
There have been only eleven cases of sustained high growth
since World War II, Spence wrote -- "high" meaning more than
7 percent, "sustained" meaning for 25 years or more.
Never mind Europe; eight of them have been in Asia. They include
China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan
and Thailand. (The others are Botswana, Malta and Oman.)
What can be said with certainty about the factors that drive
these extraordinary episodes? A fair amount, said Spence,
some of it gleaned from the European experience, some of it
from Japan.
"The prospects for developing countries are, in fact, probably
more favorable now than they have been since World War II.
International trade is growing faster than global GDP. The
benefits of decades of learning with respect to operating
global supply chains are accessible. Information and technology
continue to lower transaction costs and to be a powerful integrating
force.
"But perhaps even more important, the key players in all
this -- the leaders in emerging economies who have the responsibility
for building policies that support private sector entrepreneurship
and that lead to sustained inclusive growth -- have a wealth
of experience to rely on. No one is in the dark."
* * *
A memorial service for Richard Musgrave will be held on May
18 at 3 P.M. in the Harvard Memorial Church, with a reception
afterwards.