There's a toplofty headline if ever there was one. You
would have to range freely over all the globe to make good on
its promise. There was no exhilarating breakthrough, like
the proof of the Poincaré conjecture in mathematics --
or if there was, I don't know it.
As it happens, the big story in economics in 2006 happened
in Cambridge, Mass.-- the ouster of Lawrence Summers as president
of Harvard University.
Summers' firing has reverberated throughout the economics profession,
because of his prominence as an economist in his own right,
his close relations with Harvard's economics department, one
of the best in the world, and department members' intricate
connections with the rest of the profession.
Some significant part of the university's loss of confidence
-- it's impossible to say exactly how much -- stemmed from alarm
at Summers' conduct throughout Harvard's long-running Russia
scandal. (The tenth anniversary of that scandal's inception
is coming up in April.)
A capsule description: as a young assistant professor in 1979,
Summers befriended Andrei Shleifer while the teen-age Soviet
émigré was a Harvard undergraduate. A vivid intellectual
collaboration ensued. A decade later, Summers arranged for Shleifer,
by then a professor at the University of Chicago, to return
to Harvard; then, as Undersecretary of the Treasury for International
Affairs, Summers helped arrange for him to direct an advice-giving
mission to Russia on behalf of the US government, after the
Soviet Union collapsed.
After the US Agency for International Development fired Shleifer
in 1997 for investing in Russia while dispensing supposedly
disinterested advice, Summers stood by, first as Treasury Secretary,
then as president of the university, while Harvard, expensively
and ultimately unsuccessfully, defended his friend against a
government suit for fraud. At one point, the newly-installed
president urged Faculty of Arts and Sciences dean Jeremy Knowles
to take pains to keep Shleifer at Harvard.
Summers had many other problems in his five years as president.
One after another, he alienated many factions in the university
he was hired to change. But in the end, it was probably
the Russia project that provided the fulcrum by which he was
levered from the job. "When the president responded in
a manifestly untruthful way to questions that were asked about
the Shleifer case, [at a crucial meeting of the faculty], it
had a devastating effect on the views of people who were to
that point uncommitted, people who, like me, were strong supporters
of his agenda," professor Robert Putnam, a political scientist,
later told Sara Ivry of The New York Times.
A few months later, former Harvard president Derek Bok, who
is serving as acting president while Harvard seeks a new chief
executive, told a small audience about the advice he would give
to his successor, stressing the importance of basic integrity
(his talk was reported
by Katherine Gray in The Harvard Crimson):
"If a president comes out and tells something that's exposed
as a clear lie, or engages in some other obviously indefensible
behavior, the moral authority just disappears, and the president
isn't effective. When something like that happens, they always
resign."
From the beginning, the case against Shleifer was elementary:
that in making prohibited investments while ostensibly teaching
the Russians the rules of the game of a market economy, he was
in fact offering a textbook illustration of corruption, American-style,
cynically breaking the very law he had been hired to teach.
That Shleifer meanwhile presented himself to the profession
as an expert on bribery and other forms of dishonesty -- publishing
an article called "Corruption" in the Harvard-sponsored
Quarterly Journal of Economics, of which he was co-editor at
the time -- merely added piquancy to the charge.
Yet the astonishing thing about Shleifer's misadventure is
not the transgression itself. That's easy enough to understand
in a 31-year-old émigré returning to Moscow's
epic gold rush in 1992 with no training in Western civic culture
(aside from intoxicating bull sessions as a grad student), and
no adult supervision. The astonishing thing all along has been
Harvard's defense of its errant professor -- an illustration
of the familiar dictum that it is the attempted cover-up, not
the deed itself, which brings the real woe.
For example, consider a scene, described by investigative reporter
David McClintick (whose lengthy chronicle in Institutional
Investor helped bring the matter to a head). In 1994, nearly
two years after he took the job, Shleifer boasted of his Russian
investments at a party given by Harvard professor Dale Jorgenson.
Did some wise old head take the youngster aside to warn him
that such investments were, at best, unseemly? Hardly. Instead,
Harvard professor Martin Feldstein asked Shleifer to introduce
him to the manager of his private equity fund. (Ultimately,
Feldstein decided not to invest with him.)
Thus were three of Harvard's four active winners of the influential
John Bates Clark Medal implicated in the misadventure from the
beginning: Feldstein (winner in 1977), Jorgenson (the winner
in 1971, who would take over as department chairman not long
after USAID fired Harvard) and Shleifer himself (winner in 1999),
while the fourth, Summers (1993), kept watch at the Treasury
Department. Given that the Clark medal is designed to
identify to all the world the discipline's intellectual leaders
(it is awarded every two years to an economist under forty),
there is no way to construe the episode except as a remarkable
breach of professional trust.
To this day, no serious defense of Shleifer has been attempted,
except by Harvard's attorneys, who argued his case within the
narrowest possible confines of the law (and lost) -- not by
Shleifer, nor by his many seconds, least of all by his friend
Summers, who now writes a regular column for the Financial Times.
It is one thing to say that the university doesn't wish to wash
its dirty laundry in public; quite another when its economists
continue to deny culpability even after a federal judge has
found against the university.
Meanwhile, the aftershocks at Harvard are continuing. They
are a matter of rumor and speculation, since interim dean Jeremy
Knowles declined to release the report of the Committee on Professional
Conduct that studied the Shleifer matter for him, or to disclose
what disciplinary action he has taken. (That Shleifer had been
stripped of his endowed chair quickly became known.) The latest
development is the matter of the economics library stacks. After
long years of sharing quarters in mausoleum-like Littauer Center
with the government department, the economics department at
last has been preparing to remodel, after the political scientists
moved into a home of their own.
Not so fast, said the dean and the director of the Harvard
libraries last year. They would be commandeering the antiquated
library stacks, two floors in the Littauer basement, for temporary
storage of the Fine Arts library, while its home, the Fogg Museum,
across the college yard, is renovated -- a temporary "loan"
that could last a decade or more. That means the loss of much-needed
classroom and computer lab space for the university's largest
department -- not to mention a move-in period when even faculty
offices may be unavailable. To the economists, the news
was all the worse for not having been consulted.
To what extent is the decision connected to the traumatic events
of last few years? It is impossible to really know. Certainly
space in and around Harvard Yard is desperately scarce. Certainly,
too, there is resentment of the economists, who have enjoyed
an unusual degree of latitude within the university for many
years. There is no doubt that Summers, having agreed to
shut the Fogg, somewhat casually failed to find a temporary
home for its teaching library before he left. Then again,
perhaps there is nothing more to it than the authorities solving
a constrained optimization problem as best they can. But it
certainly looks like
a measure of payback.
If so, it is probably counterproductive. Control of one's working
space is a crucial element of any job. There are many highly
talented people teaching in the economics department, only a
handful of them closely involved in the Shleifer affair. Surely
there are other places to relocate the Fine Arts library --
why not the spacious first floor of Pusey Library, whose entrance
was symbolically locked during the Summers years?
If the dean wants to send a message, better he should commission
an outside-Cambridge opinion on the policies at the Quarterly
Journal of Economics, the
nation's oldest economics journal, published by the Harvard
department since 1886. It is true that the citation rate per
paper has soared at the QJE,
relative to four other top journals, during the decade after
Shleifer became co-editor in 1989. But it is far from clear
exactly why.
* * *
So much for the big story of 2006. Meanwhile, two extremely
influential economists died last year. Milton Friedman, 94,
garnered front-page headlines. But Mark Perlman, 82, a
former University of Pittsburgh professor, also will be missed.
The two men were connected. It was during Friedman's presidential
year that the American Economic Association budget swelled to
record levels. What to do with the excess cash? Friedman
favored turning the Journal of Economic Abstracts into a full-fledged periodical to catalog, survey and
review the growing flood of economic research. When the Journal
of Economic Literature was
established, he appointed Perlman to edit it.
Perlman's father, Selig, a professor of economics at the University
of Wisconsin, had been Friedman's close friend during an ugly
episode of anti-Semitism when Friedman taught there in 1940-41.
The younger Perlman took the helm of the JEL
and in the course of fourteen years made it into a quarterly
powerhouse, featuring survey and review articles, book reviews,
an annotated bibliography of newly published books, and a list
of current dissertations in North American universities. Friedman
later called the appointment his "greatest contribution
as president."
Perlman taught for a time at Cornell and Johns Hopkins, then
settled down in Pittsburgh. For more than thirty years,
he was a familiar figure on campus -- bow-tied, friendly, deeply
interested in his students. Such was his impact that a group
of colleagues and former students presented him a Festschrift, published in 2002 as Editing Economics:
Essays in Honor of Mark Perlman.
Nearly forty years after he began it, the JEL continues to be a prime place to scout for economic news.
Thus William Easterly of New York University (The Elusive
Quest for Growth, The
White Man's Burden) continued
his quarrel with Columbia University's Jeffrey Sachs, with a
JEL review of Sachs'The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities
for Our Times. Easterly
described Sachs as the profession's leading proponent of mega-reform.
"...[H]is recommendation throughout his career has been
to it fast, do it big, do it comprehensively, and do it with
lots of Western money." Big Pushes do not deliver
on their utopian goals, argued Easterly; better a piecemeal
approach.
Similarly, Naomi Lamoreaux of the University of California
at Los Angeles reports on the most recent twists and turns in
the QWERTY story in her review of History Matters: Essays
on Economic Growth, Technology and Demographic Change.
Economic historian Paul David's original article in 1985 on
the origins of the typewriter keyboard gained much of its force
from the assertion that its design was inefficient, she says;
Stanley Liebowitz and Steven Margolis countered that it was
no such thing. Lamoreaux argues that there is no reason path-dependent
processes must lead to inefficient results; it is enough to
say that history shapes technological developments in persistent
ways.
Robert Skidelsky, the biographer of Keynes, carefully reviews
Richard Parker's John Kenneth Galbraith: His Life, His Politics,
His Economics. Galbraith
also died last year, at 98, after a long and happy life. For
twenty years in the middle of the twentieth century, Skidelsky
notes, probably he was the "best-known" economist
in the world. "But he was not then, and never will
be, regarded as a great economist by economists, because he
produced no theories, which is what great economists are supposed
to do." Like his hero Keynes, Galbraith was an eminent
public intellectual -- "moralist, controversialist, stylist,
wit." And Skidelsky gives Parker's affectionate biography
the careful and respectful reading that a long book about a
long life deserves. "One senses that the desire to pay
homage to the still living Galbraith overcame the natural instinct
of a biographer to discover more than his subject is willing
to tell," he writes. And the attempt to rebuild economics
along the lines of sociology for which Parker yearns is "obviously
doomed to failure." So mainly the story has much to tell
about the shifting tides of the last century, he says -- though
Galbraith's grace and wit will serve as an example in any age.
And R. Preston McAfee, of the California Institute of Technology,
tucks with great gusto into Tim Harford's surprise best-seller
of last year, The Undercover Economist.
The author of a much more careful book of his own for laymen
(Competitive Solutions: The StrategistŐs Toolkit),
McAfee praises Harford in the early going -- his account of
the welfare theorems "is very nice indeed." He then
gleefully dings him for Anglocentrism ("Picking Keynes
as the most influential economist of the twentieth century is
like picking Bobby Riggs as the most influential tennis star,
confusing notoriety with influence...") and flogs him for
gullibility and imprecision. Those "failed" US spectrum
auctions? The Brits copied them down to the last detail,
but Harford had swallowed a revisionist history by Oxford economist
Paul Klemperer "hook, line, sinker and fishing pole."
Harford's account of China's economic growth is "reasonable
though glib," though it omits the most important reason
for China's success: "China ignored the advice of Harvard
economists, Russia did not." Writes McAfee, "This
is a book to make a bishop throw a silver chalice through a
stained glass window"-- and so he does!
It's a fitting symbol of another lively year in technical economics.