Popular books in recent years have offered some striking
vocabulary for talking about the changes wrought by technological
advance: The Death of Distance,
The Weightless World,
The Invisible Continent, and, most famously, Thomas Friedman's best-seller,
The World Is Flat.
("...[I]t is now possible," wrote Friedman, "for more people
than ever to collaborate and compete in real time with more
other people on more different kinds of work in more different
corners of the planet and on a more equal footing than at
any previous time in the history of the world...")
But what do these figures of speech actually mean? None captures
with much depth or precision the essence of the change that
is taking place. For that we have to turn from journalism
to technical economics. There we find an important new idea
-- a discovery, actually, in a science that most people consider to
be pretty much the same as it ever was.
In the last ten years, economists have learned to distinguish
between rival and non-rival goods, and the degree to which their use by others
may be excluded by those who create them. This is definitely
not the familiar old distinction between public goods and
private goods. It is a new and important way of dividing up
the world in order to think more clearly about the sources
of economic value. And it is described in my Knowledge
and the Wealth of Nations: a Story of Economic Discovery,
a book that appeared earlier this year.
A rival good is one that can be possessed by only one person
at a time: your lunch, for example; if I eat it, you cannot.
A rival good can be shared, of course: I can cut my
apple in half, let you use my pencil, give you my seat in
the subway, lend you my car, or co-sign a loan.
Ultimately, however, its corporealitry defines a rival good.
There's a limit to how much it can be shared.
A nonrival good, on the other hand, is characterized by the
fact that that its use or consumption by one person or in
one process doesn't reduce the amount of it that can be consumed
by another. Once it has been created, once a certain fixed
cost has been incurred, a nonrival good can be used over and
over again with almost no additional cost. A non-rival
good, in essence, is a design.
What's an example? A nonrival good can be as simple as the
time of day -- if I tell you what time it is, I don't lose
track of it myself -- or as complicated as the design of the
wristwatch I consult in order to tell you. The specifications
of a new airplane. The formula for a wonder drug. The
design of an improvised explosive device. The manuscript of
Tom Friedman's book. Or the text of "Endogenous Technological
Change," the 32-page article in the Journal of Political
Economy that introduced
the rival/nonrival distinction to a wide audience in economics
in 1990. (Friedman describes the article's author, Paul M.
Romer as "my economics tutor.")
Not surprisingly, excludability is usually the key to whether
or not a nonrival good gets produced. (In the past, economists
spoke of a new idea's "appropriability," which amounts to
the same thing.) Patents, trademarks and copyrights exist
to exclude nonpaying customers from the use of nonrival goods--
but so do secrets, locks and keys, tickets, applications programming
interfaces, encryption devices, and rapid serial innovation.
Manufacturing anything
requires a vast array of inputs that are essentially nonrival:
recipes, formulas, techniques, arrangements, designs, blueprints,
procedures, texts, and so on. So naturally, a great many workers
are employed in the excludability industry, from engineers
and patent lawyers to railway conductors and game wardens.
The essence of these distinctions can be seen in the simple
tables depicting the economic attributes of different goods
that have begun appearing in introductory texts. This one,
perhaps the clearest, though still not especially clear, is
from the fifth edition of John Taylor's Economics. Missing is a two-way arrow designed to convey
that the degree of excludability of anything, rival or nonrival,
is essentially a continuum that extends from complete
excludability (among rival goods, your lunch, for example;
among nonrival goods, a coded satellite radio broadcast) to
full nonexcludability (among rival goods, fish in the ocean
or hives of bees deployed to pollinate orchards; among non-rival
goods, say, the Pythagorean theorem). You can choose examples
of your own.
| |
Rival |
Nonrival |
| Excludable |
A pencil
CD player with headphones |
Movie theater
The opera |
| Nonexcludable |
Swing in a public park
Book in a public library |
Fireworks
Network television |
Note that the provision of any good or service inevitably
possesses both rival and nonrival aspects. A Beatles
recording may be stored and communicated as an LP with an
ounce of vinyl, a couple of grams of polycarbonate plastic
as a CD, or a stream of bits that can be sent as a file over
the Internet and stored on a chip in a hard drive or in an
iPod, but, even there it still takes up space. The important
thing, however, is the original recording, of which the record,
the CD, the MP3 file are just another nonrival copy -- four
lads named John, Paul, George and Ringo singing a certain
song together on a certain day in London in 1965.
(Some slang can further illuminate the difference here:
economists and others speak sometimes of atoms and bits. Atoms
make up the rival part of a particular good, that which may
be possessed corporeally by just one person at a time -- a
banana, say, or a Cuisinart, or a paperback edition of A
Tale of Two Cities. Bits comprise the nonrival portion, that which can
be written down and encoded in a computer, and therefore used
simultaneously by any number of persons -- the genome of the
banana, the design of the food processor, the text of Dickens'
novel.)
Our customary shorthand for nonrival goods is technology. But then a World Cup football match is a non-rival
good; so is a concert, a performance, a novel, a painting,
or the design of a dress. Individual nonrival goods are best
described as ideas. The incalculably many ideas of humankind sum up to
what we call knowledge.
More knowledge, incidentally, usually means less mass: the
IPod, for example. The declining ratio of atoms to bits is
a favorite hobby horse of former Federal Reserve chairman
Alan Greenspan.
The rival/nonrival distinction augments the much more familiar
dichotomy between public and private. Private goods,
we say, are those provided by markets; public goods either
occur naturally (well water, fresh air) or are supplied by
governments when there is some kind of "market failure." National
defense is a public good, we say, so are streetlights. Each
is nonrival and nonexcludable. Yet all kinds of nonrivalrous
items in the modern world are not at all what we think of
as being public goods. The cholesterol-lowering medicine Lipitor,
for example, is mostly a non-rival good (a chemical formula)
whose manufacture as a chemical tablet is carefully protected
by a patent. The Windows computer operating system is protected
against copying or modification both by copyright and by the
secrets of its source code.
You'd think this conceptual apparatus would have always been
around. And in fact as early as 1832, Charles Babbage,
in The Economy of Machinery and Manufactures, identified the basic idea of nonrivalry, in a chapter
on copying. But mainstream economics has had a hard
time with knowledge. Lacking the kind of mathematical intuition
of diminishing returns that has made the "invisible hand"
such a powerful idea, economists have either cloaked the economic
role of the growth of knowledge (and the increasing returns
that flow from low or even negligible marginal cost for each
additional item) in the tricky language of uncompensated external
effects (good externalities are called "spillovers;" bad externalities
"congestion," "pollution" and so on); or deliberately left
it out their account altogether, letting an essentially unexplained
residual measure the importance of apparently autonomous technological
change.
So instead, the law of intellectual property has evolved
over the centuries to protect the ownership of these goods,
a complicated doctrine that often verges on the metaphysical.
The underlying rationale is no different today from when Nathaniel
Ward wrote it up in 1641 for the civil code of the Massachusetts
Bay Colony known as The Body of Liberties:
"No monopolies shall be granted or allowed amongst us, but
of such new Inventions that are profitable to the Countrie,
and that for a short time." Why protect inventions at all?
To spur their creation, naturally. But which inventions to
protect? And for how long? Good questions, when
a cholesterol-busting compound similar to Lipitor could be
produced for a tiny fraction of the price and even introduced
into the communal water supply, like fluoride, as a truly
public good.
Not until early 1990s did the new distinctions emerge clearly,
mostly from the work of Romer, then a professor of economics
at the University of Chicago, today at the Graduate School
of Business at Stanford University. Romer achieved his breakthrough,
not through literary investigation, but via the exploration
of the properties of mathematical models. The rival/nonrival
distinction he found in the attic of public finance, where
it had gathered dust since Richard Musgrave apparently created
it in 1966. Romer combined nonrivalary with potential
excludability, giving intellectual property its first real
standing in aggregate economics. At a fundamental level, the
result has been a gradual reorganization of the mental filing
system that we call the "factors of production" -- from Land,
Labor and Capital to People, Ideas and Things.
It is the nonrivalry of knowledge that is behind globalization,
not some mysterious flattening of the earth. What has fundamentally
changed is the willingness of previously non-participating
nations of the world to join in the chase, by educating their
citizens and permitting them to acquire and create and deploy
new knowledge in global markets. The economy of the fledgling
United States soared after Boston merchant Francis Cabot Lowell
traveled to Manchester in 1811 to surreptitiously memorize
the design of the Cartwright power looms, machinery whose
export had been strictly forbidden. It did not matter. By
broadening the market, American entry into the textile manufacturing
stimulated the industry in Great Britain, too -- the nonrivalry
of technology meant that the price of clothing fell dramatically.
Eighty years later, Japan did the same thing.
Today it is China and India (and Russian, Brazil and all
the rest) that have entered global markets, computers and
software having replaced power looms. Central banks in Germany
and France have sold much of their gold reserves in order
to symbolically plow the proceeds into research universities.
(Note to governments: the reform of higher education
is harder than it looks.) In the United States, a blue-ribbon
panel of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and
the Institute of Medicine, in a report called "Rising above
the Gathering Storm," last year prescribed a range of far-reaching
reforms, from investing more heavily in K-12 education to
funding more high-risk research and modernizing the patent
system. "The rapid pace of technological change and the increasing
mobility of capital and talent mean that our current lead
in science and technology could evaporate quickly if we fail
to support it," the authors wrote. "The consequences would
be enormous, and once lost, our lead would be difficult to
regain."
Romer's contribution to this debate is a scheme for subsidizing
the supply of scientists and engineers, rather than government
demand for their services, insisting all the while that market
signals (such as starting salaries) be publicized by degree-granting
institutions on market signals (such as starting salaries)
-- a slightly souped-up version of the 1958 National Defense
Education Act. The NDEA was the principle American response
to the Soviet Union's success in hoisting the first satellite
into earth orbit: it produced the generation of scientists,
engineers and entrepreneurs which vaulted the United States
well ahead into technological pre-eminence. It is important,
however, to master the analysis on which Romer's proposal
is based. The new distinctions are still working their way
into the textbooks, under the banner of "endogenous" growth.
You can't think clearly about globalization without them.
Distance is not dead. You have only to look at the
gradient of land rents in any city. The earth is not
flat. All kinds of frictions remain. But knowledge definitely
is nonrival and, at best, only temporarily excludable. The
result is that there is much more competition for new know-how
than ever before, with many more people anxious to learn and
compete. And that is
what globalization is all about.
(This is a version of remarks presented last week at a meeting
in Arlington, Virginia, organized by the Rand Institute, "The
Gathering Storm and Its Implications for National Security.")