So Harvard University has taken away Andrei Shleifer's endowed
chair and its privileges -- stripped him of his epaulets, in
effect. Any day now, the Becker Center on Chicago Price Theory
at the University of Chicago, too, will have to do the same,
remove the Whipple V.N. Jones Professorship from in front
of Shleifer's name on its website. Then the 45-year-old
Harvard economics professor will be the only professorial
director of that newly formed center without a chair (Ronald
Coase, Milton Friedman, George Shultz and Richard O. Ryan,
the agribusiness magnate who founded it, are the others).
Some day, too, Shleifer may remove himself from Harvard, perhaps
to Chicago, where he belonged all along; possibly to the Hoover
Institution at Stanford University, where Shultz and Friedman
hang their hats; or even to London. Then again, he may remain
in Cambridge, Mass. But that's a story for another day.
The question for today has to do with estimating the damage
that began accruing -- to Harvard University in particular,
to the economics profession in general -- when, in 1997, while
leading a Harvard team advising the government of Russia on
behalf of the government of the United States, Shleifer was
caught red-handed lining his own pockets with various investments
in Russia.
To learn about Harvard's recent attempt to deal with its
self-inflicted wounds, read on.
Instead of doing the right thing in 1997, scolding its professor
and copping a plea, Harvard then joined him in a bristling
defense. The university insisted that in leading its
mission to Moscow Shleifer had done nothing wrong by speculating
in Russian bonds, investing in a Russian private equity firm,
strong-arming a well-established competitor and obtaining
for his wife, his sidekick and the sidekick's girlfriend the
first license to sell mutual funds in Russia -- from the very
regulators to whom he was being paid to give disinterested
advice.
Elementary ethical common sense, not to mention government
contracts and Harvard's own rules, required Shleifer to refrain
from investing the country he was he was advising.
If, at any point along the way, the university, its department
of economics and its errant professor had simply acknowledged
that they understood the logic behind this simple ethical
precept, expressing appropriate embarrassment and regret,
the episode quickly would have faded into the background.
Nine years later, however, after a humiliating trial in US
District Court in Boston, Harvard was found to have breached
its contract, and was ordered to return $26.5 million, almost
all the money it collected and spent. Shleifer and his protégé/deputy,
Jonathan Hay, were found to have committed two kinds of fraud,
and Shleifer was fined $2 million, as much as the US attorney
could extract from him, having no way to tap whatever offshore
wealth he possessed.
And a year after that, Shleifer's friend and mentor Lawrence
Summers was gone from the Harvard presidency. Summers' obtuseness
on the Shleifer matter is understood within the university
to have been a precipitating factor in the Harvard Corporation's
decision to compel his resignation. "When the president responded
in a manifestly untruthful way to questions that were asked
about the Shleifer case, [at a crucial meeting of the faculty],
it had a devastating effect on the views of people who were
to that point uncommitted, people who, like me, were strong
supporters of his agenda," professor Robert Putnam, a political
scientist, later told Sara Ivry of The New York Times.
The backstory helps understand the situation. In 1992, with
the Soviet Union disintegrating, Congress authorized aid for
the newly elected Russian government of Boris Yeltsin, but
not too much of it. The Freedom for Russia and the Emerging
Eurasian Democracies and Open-Market Support Act, signed into
law by President George H.W. Bush in October, authorized up
to $350 million for a mission to advise the newly forming
Russian government on how to lay the groundwork for a market
economy. The US Agency for International Development selected
Harvard, and in 1992 Harvard chose the 32-year-old Shleifer,
having hired him from Chicago the year before. Cheering him
on at every step was Summers, who had befriended him a dozen
years before, when Summers was an assistant professor and
Shleifer a brash sophomore.
What had commended him for the job in Russia? The fact that,
for one thing, he spoke the language like a native,
having grown up in the Soviet Union before emigrating to the
United States with his parents when he was sixteen. That he
had learned economics at Harvard College and the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, and taught it at the University of
Chicago. That he had turned out to be something of a prodigy,
making highly original contributions to the comparative analysis
of the legal institutions and financial markets that underpin
market economies. That he was an expert on corruption, no
less. Above all, that he was an enthusiastic student of applied
power. (His wife liked to call him "Boss.") Summers,
who at the time was chief economist for the World Bank, first
sent him to Russia in 1991.
Shleifer took the helm of Harvard's Moscow office in December
1992 -- about the same time that Summers became Assistant Secretary
of the Treasury for International Affairs in the new Clinton
administration. A little more than four years later,
USAID shut down the Harvard project, after its inspector general
discovered Shleifer to be investing in Russia, with his wife,
her father, his deputy and the deputy's girlfriend. Just how
rich they hoped to become is still not clear -- maybe a lot,
maybe a little, but definitely some, in contravention of their
contract. By that time, Summers had risen to the number-two
job at Treasury, under Robert Rubin. And though, to his credit,
he never tried to derail Justice Department probe of the matter,
it is clear that Summers freely deprecated the government's
complaint against his friend from behind the scenes.
The case against Shleifer had nothing to do with inside information.
(It is sure sign of a red herring when someone tells you he
was not guilty of a transgression that was never alleged.)
It had to do with the self-dealing and the abuse of a position
of trust. The only way to understand this is to put yourself
in the place of a Russian citizen looking forward to a better
deal from the new system. When the American team arrives,
it is led by an expatriate crook, flouting the rules of the
country he represents, until his subordinates turn him in.
(It doesn't help that Summers, his mentor, has oversight of
all US economic policy towards Russia.)
In somewhat
similar circumstances, the State Department turned down
Boris Jordan, another ambitious young Russian hoping to go
to Moscow for the US Foreign Service. To Shleifer, however,
Harvard said, Go right ahead! The Russian story is like
something out of fiction, except that it happened.
(Here, then, is the real scandal: it turns out that
Shleifer was boasting of his investments in a Russian private
equity fund to his economist friends as early as October 1994,
at a party at the home of then department chairman Dale Jorgenson.
This is according to David McClintock, who wrote up an authoritative
version of the Shleifer story earlier this year for Institutional
Investor magazine. Martin Feldstein phoned Shleifer
afterwards, seeking an introduction. In the end he decided
not to invest, McClintick wrote.)
So much, then, for the advice Shleifer was receiving from
his colleagues in the economics department. Once USAID blew
its whistle, however, there was another opportunity when Harvard's
administration could have investigated, discovered for itself
the wrongdoing, taken its professor to the woodshed, negotiated
an agreement with the US Attorney in Boston to make the government
whole, and been done with the matter at relatively little
cost in cash or reputation. Sheifer was, after all, just a
kid who had grown up in former the Soviet Union, hardly a
finishing school for good behavior. Even before taking over
the Russia Project, he had shown a willingness to bend the
rules.
But he was also a likeable guy, bright and quick, intellectually
fearless, full of excitement at the possibilities of his new
world. It is easy to imagine a time when a stern talking to
from someone he trusted -- his friend Summers, for example;
or chemist Jeremy Knowles, who served as Dean of the Faculty
of Arts and Sciences from 1991 until 2002; or Harvard Provost
Harvey Fineberg -- would have put the whole matter on a different
track.
Why wasn't it done? The mechanics remain a riddle.
The cast of characters comprises a veritable Who's Who: Jorgenson,
who was chair of the economics department when the scandal
broke; FAS Dean Knowles; Albert Carnesale, who was provost
when the scandal broke (retired as chancellor of the University
of California at Lost Angeles, he is back at Harvard's Kennedy
School part-time);t Fineberg, who took over as provost just
after the initial flurry of news reports (he is president
of the Institute of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences
today); Deputy Treasury Secretary Summers, who may have been
consulted through back channels before being elected Harvard
president in 2001; Harvard professor and ethicist Dennis
Thompson, a friend of Harvard President Neil Rudenstine and
the head of a committee that devised the plan to disband the
intermediary organization that Shleifer wrecked, the
Harvard Institute for International Development; and, of course,
Rudenstine himself. The principle faculty whistle-blower was
Jeffrey Sachs, who was quickly ridden off the case. (He moved
to Columbia in 2002.)
The broad outlines of why Harvard felt it was important to
be nice to Shleifer are clear enough. He is a central figure
in present-day technical economics; like Summers, Feldstein
and Jorgenson, a winner of the John Bates Clark Medal, given
every two years to the economist considered to be the profession's
best thinker under forty. Sometimes it is said that Shleifer's
line of research is potentially of Nobel quality. Maybe so,
maybe not. But they give a Nobel every year. Shleifer's real
attraction is as chairman of the board of an especially broad
line of recent advances, as Larry Summers was chairman of
the board of another. (A less flattering term for the role
is Godfather.) Between them, the pair would command the presence
and subsequent loyalty of a steady stream of the very best
graduate students for another fifteen years -- including the
brainiest young economists from Russia. Indeed, the parade
through Littauer Hall of steller faculty and students from
the former Soviet Union during the last few years has been
remarkable.
Add to this the fact that the Harvard Management Company
was investing aggressively in Russia in the mid-'90s -- as
much as 1.8 percent of the university's endowment in the year
before USAID fired Harvard. Did Shleifer possess some bit
of kompromat, or potentially
compromising material, that might have led Massachusetts Hall
to prefer to join its defense to his until the very end?
The possibility is widely discussed in Eastern Europe, where
such stratagems are common. It is, of course, virtually impossible
to know.
In any event, in the highly competitive environment of modern
economics, the cost of doing the right thing has gone up.
As if to illustrate this principle, Yale University last year
fired tenured professor Florencio López-de-Silanes, Shleifer's
protégé and frequent collaborator, after he was discovered
to be double-billing his expenses to theWorld Bank and the
university's Center for Corporate Governance. But, then, López-de-Silanes
is a follower in his field, not a leader.
The result today is that Harvard economics' considerable
luster is bedimmed by a light gray curse. (There are other
problems, too; the department's stewardship of its Quarterly
Journal of Economics has come under fire in the profession
for intellectual self-dealing. Shleifer edited for a decade,
and helped choose the current editors, Robert Barro, Lawrence
Katz and Edward Glaeser.) On the issue of Shleifer's standing,
the department is deeply riven.
Some, including Claudia Goldin, David Laibson, Katz and Glaeser
have been outspoken in defense of his academic stature. Others,
including Jorgenson (now a high-ranking university professor)
and N. Gregory Mankiw (the former George W. Bush adviser who
teaches Harvard's introductory economics course), have grumbled
over the years about the university's administration, the
government and the press, but only behind the scenes. A sizeable
faction of the 71-member department, perhaps even a slight
majority, deplore the Russia scandal in varying degrees, but
prefer not to speak out. In general, the situation seems to
have changed only a little from what it was when then-president
Summers described it in his deposition in 2002: "...[M]embers
of the department, the economics department, expressed and
have on repeated occasions expressed the view that Andrei
was in some way or other being screwed...."
Undergraduates -- a record 965 of them taking Mankiw's introductory
course, or nearly 20 percent of the college enrollment -- are
cowed. For the most part, so is The Harvard Crimson. Shleifer's
defenders at MIT, where he trained, and the Graduate School
of Business of the University of Chicago, where he taught,
remain silent. Meanwhile, he remains a powerful dispenser
of favors as the editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives,
the outreach journal of the American Economic Association.
Thus the light gray curse extends beyond Harvard to the economics
profession itself. Friends say that Shleifer will explain
himself some day, perhaps in a larger context. Possibly he
will take on the very concept of disinterestedness and, perhaps,
the principle of transparency as well. Alternatively, he could
argue that sometimes agents must do things considered bad
in one culture in order to buttress their credibility in another,
in order ultimately to do good -- a "Mission Impossible"
defense whose outlines
were sketched here last spring. When, a couple of years ago,
Shleifer received a prize at the University of Munich, Tim
Besley of the London School of Economics said in his laudation,
"There is... a healthy disregard for convention in Andrei's
work -- a trait that I associate with his mentor Larry Summers.
Andrei is willing to challenge accepted wisdom on any topic
and many of his contributions take on entrenched views."
Whatever the case, a clear and forthright discussion of the
issues would seem to be the price of remaining in Cambridge
far into the future.
It is in this context that Harvard's decision to take away
his named chair is understood. At first glance, it looks fairly
deft. Interim Dean Knowles (who presumed Shleifer in innocent
in 1997 and promoted him to the Jones chair in 2002) last
month simply took the named professorship away. He may have
done more. Who knows? Knowles declined to reveal his actions,
to release report of the faculty Committee on Professional
Conduct or the names of its three ad hoc faculty consultants. He left it to The Boston
Globe to "discover"
the rescission by checking the university website. Shleifer
shrugged. He told the Globe, "I was a professor of economics last week, and
I am a professor of economics this week." Yet it seems
that no penalty like it has ever been applied. It is enough
to place a virtual asterisk wherever his name appears -- at
the University of Chicago's Becker Center, for example.
Then Harvard quietly applied the same punishment to another
faculty miscreant. It took back another chair -- the
Ernest E. Monrad Professorship, previously belonging to economist
Martin Weitzman. (This time it was The Harvard Crimson that
nailed down the facts.)
Weitzman is no less bright a contributor than Shleifer, and,
though 64, remains very active in his field. A new book, "Income,
Wealth and the Maximum Principle," is an unusually accessible
explication of the mathematical underpinnings of capital theory,
hence a guide for serious students of sustainability and "green"
accounting. A new working paper -- "Risk, Uncertainty
and Asset Pricing 'Puzzles'" -- is stirring a lively
controversy over the deepest assumptions that underlie conventional
econometric models of expectations.
It was, however, Weitzman who found his way into the news
last year when he drove his truck into a pasture to pick up
horseflops -- and was promptly penned in by the farmer who
owned the land, with whom he had been feuding for years. Trapped,
Weitzman offered $20, then $40 for the manure, but the farmer
called the sheriff, the sheriff charged Weitzman with theft,
and Weitzman eventually agreed in Essex County Court to pay
$900 to settle the case ($600 for the farmer, $300 for the
town Boy Scouts) -- but not before the story spread around
the world, providing fodder for many bad puns.
Among the faculty, there were intimations that donor dissatisfaction
was at the root of the recission, but Monrad, a jovial and
tolerant Boston money manager, says that he expressed no displeasure,
publicly or privately. Nor, apparently, did Dean Knowles consult
the faculty's Committee on Professional Conduct before repossessing
Weitzman's honorific title. A spokesman for the Faculty of
Arts and Sciences said Friday that the dean was under no obligation
to explain his decisions.
There is, indeed, a common thread running through both incidents:
a rather startling arrogance; in each case a Harvard professor
acted as though he were entitled to take whatever he wanted,
regardless of the law. Granted, there is not much moral equivalence
between a $900 quarrel in a small town, on the one hand, and,
on the other, an unrepentant betrayal of an adoptive country,
an alma mater, hundreds of employees and a raft of friends
(which also cost Harvard well over $30 million and much reputational
capital). Applying the same penalty to the perpetrator of
a misdemeanor as to a man who smuggled Soviet-style values
into the highest levels of government and education in the
United States might seem to send no more weighty a message
to the Harvard faculty than, Don't get our name in the newspapers
by breaking the law. But perhaps it is too early to say.
Small gestures, cunningly contrived, can have big effects.
The price of not doing
the right thing is going up as well.