It was a somber August day in 1995 when Fischer Black died
of cancer. He was 57 -- not so much an athlete dying young
("Eyes the shady night has shut/Cannot see the record
cut," A.E. Houseman) as an explorer engaged in a fruitless
search for El Dorado. Black was a general partner at Goldman
Sachs and the father of four daughters. Had he lived, he almost
certainly would have shared in the Nobel Prize given two years
later for the Black-Scholes option pricing formula -- "a
new method to determine the value of derivatives," as
the Swedes described it. He left behind a volume of passionate
jottings, lists and reading notes entitled Exploring
General Equilibrium.
A couple of years later, Perry Mehrling, a Columbia University
economist and historian of monetary thought, went to work
on a biography. Fischer
Black and the Revolutionary Idea of Finance appeared last
year, clearly a labor of love. The picture of Black that emerges
is of a remarkably smart man, a very successful inventor and
a strangely genteel crackpot, as opposed to a successful economist.
Though he rose steadily through the centers in which finance
emerged as the engineering subsidiary of economics during
the 1960s and '70s -- Arthur D. Little, Wells Fargo Bank,
the University of Chicago, the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, Goldman Sachs -- Black never really succeeded
in entering the community of technical economics, even though
he had solved a problem that economists had recognized as
crucial. He never persuaded others to see the world the way
he did. He never knuckled under to them. And never
quit trying to make a dent.
The story of what Black did is fairly well-known by now,
a famous advertisement in intellectual circles for the intellectual
soup-pot that is the high end of life in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
How the young applied mathematician from Harvard took a job
at Arthur D. Little in 1965 instead of a post-doc in operations
research. How he learned finance from fellow-consultant Jack
Treynor, a Harvard MBA whose thinking about risk, time and
share prices would lead to an early version of the Capital
Asset Pricing Model. How in 1969 Black, while trying to relate
the value of a stock option to the underlying price of its
shares, wrote down a differential equation that he could not
solve.
How, within a year, the equation, describing the relationship
between the stock's volatility, the option's shelf life and
the riskless rate of interest (meaning the rate the government
paid on Treasury bills), had turned out to be a form of a
well-known equation describing the diffusion of heat. How
a research partnership with a young MIT economics professor
named Myron Scholes led the pair to solve the equation and
recognize the significance of what they had found as something
much more than a prospecting tool for bargain-hunting investors
-- a "universal financial device" relating the present
to the future, in Peter Berstein's phrase. How MIT's Robert
Merton mapped their discovery into the larger tapestry of
economics.
Well- known, too, is the brief but intense uphill battle
that Black and Scholes fought before their paper was accepted
by the Journal of Political Economy. Most great papers are
resisted at first.
Much less well-known is the decade-long frontal assault that
Black then made on the twin temples of technical economics,
the University of Chicago and MIT, and this Mehrling covers
in great depth. Black's successful investigations of
options pricing brought him an invitation to visit Chicago,
as Treynor's earlier semi-discovery of the Capital Asset Pricing
Model had brought an invitation to visit MIT. Unlike
his mentor, though, Black stayed in the academy for fourteen
years, five of them in Chicago, in order to engage in a prolonged
argument with Milton Friedman over the nature of money; nine
more at MIT, in order to argue with Paul Samuelson, Robert
Solow and Franco Modigliani about the origins of business
cycles.
In neither case did he succeed. Economics rejected him completely.
It wasn't personal, according to Mehrling: "Indeed, it
is fair to say that the mainstream of economics hardly even
noticed him." The problem was that Black had had
no formal training in economics. He understood its puzzles
well enough, but couldn't confidently manipulate its concepts.
His papers were humiliatingly rejected. He published them
himself eventually in a book.
So in 1984 he quit MIT and moved to Goldman Sachs, where
then managing partner Robert Rubin hired him to scout out
subtle forms of mis-pricing in the markets, the first "quant"
to join a firm whose reputation to that point had been made
in investment banking (though trading by then had become a
second big business for the firm). One of the first memos
Black wrote identified a potentially lucrative tax arbitrage
using derivatives known as term-structure swaps. A year
later the firm voted him a partnership. Before long, he had
attracted a group of practice-oriented finance intellectuals
to Goldman that collectively rivaled the faculty at all but
the very best business schools.
What was so heterodox? Black maintained that the ups
and downs of the business cycle were largely
unpredictable, "because of basic uncertainty about what
people will want in the future and about what the economy
will be able to produce in the future." If future tastes
and technology were known, he wrote in his principal essay
on the topic, "profits and wages would grow smoothly
and surely over time." But they weren't known; instead
they evolved in essentially unforeseeable ways. (The world
was non-stationary, in econometricians' jargon.) So
a boom was simply a period when technology matched well with
what people wanted from it, a recession was a period of readjustment,
and there was almost nothing the government or its central
bank could do about either except to seek to stay out of the
way. "The word got out that Fischer was absolutely
first rate in the more specialized subfield of finance, but
quite out of his depth when it came to general economics,"
writes his biographer.
In his personal life, Black was even more unorthodox.
Mehrling delicately chronicles the successes and failures
of three marriages in which Black participated with the all
the zest of a man who believed that the CAPM model of riskless
short-term borrowing was as reliable a guide to professional
services as to financial assets. "An elegant and always
meticulously groomed man, he loved women and often they loved
him back, and it wasn't all always about sex," writes
Mehrling. He was a doting father, too. He poured orange juice
on his breakfast cereal, engaged in many health food fads,
and was a most peculiar conversationalist. In the middle of
a conversation, he would begin scribbling notes and cease
talking until he was done.
Summing up: "He was the man from Mars, who looked at
finance, and economics, through fresh eyes. He was the Zelig
who always managed to be in the center of the intellectual
action, even as that center moved from the world of business
into academia and then to Wall Street. He was the visionary
prophet who saw how the new ideas in finance would lead to
a sea change, not just in the world of practical finance but
also in our everyday lives. And he was the extraordinary
man who lived his life as if that sea change had already happened."
When Black was named "Financial Engineer of the Year"
in October 1994 by finance professionals, he chose as his
topic "Doctoral Education, the Business School and the
University." He told the audience that had chosen him,
"I see our university system as similar to the former
Soviet empire, and as having similar problems... teaching
and research are too uniform. They do not respond quickly
to shifts in tastes and technology. (In fact, they try to
make this into the virtue of preserving traditional values
and avoiding fads.) And, most important, teaching and research
simply cost too much.... In my view, the basic problem with
research in business (and economics) is not that it's too
theoretical, or too mathematical, or too divorced from the
real world (though all of these are indeed serious problems).
The basic problem is that we have too much research, and the
wrong kinds of research, because governments, firms, foundations
and generous alumni support it."
A few months earlier, while having trouble fastening the
collar button of his shirt, he had joked with his wife that
perhaps the problem was a tumor. Instead of going to doctor,
however, he plunged into reading up on the possibilities --
"research," he called it. And when he finally got
the diagnosis of the throat cancer that soon would end his
life, Mehrling relates, "he burst into spontaneous laughter."