When I bought some stamps at the post office the other day,
around the corner from former House Speaker Thomas P. (Tip)
O'Neill Jr.'s old house, I asked for a sheet of Ronald Reagan
commemoratives. "I have mixed feelings about Ronald Reagan,"
I said to the man who sold me the stamps
After all, the clerk probably owed his job to Tip, who led
a long and good-natured rear-guard action in opposition to Reagan's
enthusiasm for generally smaller government, including fewer
post offices. And indeed I do have mixed feelings. I like the
post office, for example, just as I like the privately-owned
UPS store across the square.
But on one count, I no longer harbor any ambivalence at all.
Ronald Reagan was the most important US president since Franklin
Roosevelt was elected, nearly fifty years before. His policies,
like those of Roosevelt, set a mood and direction that would
dominate US politics for decades after he left office.
It was 25 years ago this weekend that Reagan signed the Economic
Recovery Tax Act, which slashed personal income tax rates and
indexed tax brackets for inflation. So hastily written was its
reduction of the corporate tax rate that the statute had to
be amended the next year, lest budget deficits spin completely
out of control.
But in combination with the stringent monetary policy being
pursued by Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker (a lifelong
Democrat appointed by Jimmy Carter in 1979), and a wave of new
technological opportunities (made possible by decades of government
investment), the stimulus was more than enough to get the economy
growing again. The expansion that began in 1982 has continued,
despite some thrills and spills, with only a pair of recessions
to the present day. A certain amount of credit can be laid to
the simplification that began with the 1981 tax act; a certain
amount to Reagan's willingness to tolerate the monetary scourge.
When the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal last week
took note of the anniversary, it noted correctly that "the reigning
Keynesian policy consensus had no answer" to the predicament
that the newly-elected president confronted in 1981. Advisers
to Jimmy Carter had considered that inflation was a more or
less ineradicable condition of modern capitalism; that stagnation
was a serious threat.
When the Journal took credit for what happened next, it may
have slightly overstated the case. "...So a new group of economic
ideas came to the fore. Actually, they were old, classical economic
ideas that were rediscovered via the likes of Milton Friedman
and the Chicago School, and such policy activists in Washington
as Norman Ture and Jack Kemp, among others. These humble columns
under our late editor, Robert Bartley, led the parade."
There was indeed a time when the Journal's editorial page absolutely
dominated discussion of these topics. Its hegemony has been
diminished by the appearance over the years of other voices,
but, on some topics, it has remained very powerful. It was unrivalled
in its enthusiasm for the invasion of Iraq, for example (though
not a little backup was contributed by the front page of The
New York Times).
It is, however, hard to exaggerate Milton Friedman's role in
what happened in 1981. It was not just the nine-part Public
Television series "Free to Choose" in which he starred with
his economist wife the year before. Friedman's friendship with
Ronald Reagan dated back nearly fifteen years, to when Reagan
had been governor of California; his political influence to
the 1964 Barry Goldwater campaign. And the intellectual influence
of his 1962 primer, Capitalism and Freedom, rivalled that of
John Maynard Keynes' 1936 General Theory of Employment, Interest
and Money.
As for the "Laffer curve," the diagram sketched on a napkin
by consultant Arthur Laffer by way of arguing that lower tax
rates almost inevitably produce big changes in economic behavior;
and the authority of Ibn Khaldun, a 14th century Muslim philosopher
(who wrote, "It should be known that at the beginning of the
dynasty, taxation yields a large revenue from small assessments;
at the end of the dynasty, taxation yields a small revenue from
large assessments"), it is easy to imagine Reagan saying of
his brain trust, as an adviser to Franklin Roosevelt famously
said of his, pointing to his suit coat sleeve, "You see these
buttons? They don't do a damn thing, but fashion says I've got
to have them, so I do."
What bothers me about supply-side doctrines as they have evolved
in political discourse is their tendency to mimic the worst
features of Keynesian doctrines of demand management of the
1960s and 1970s -- instead of government spending to pump up
aggregate demand, tax cuts were required to stimulate aggregate
supply. Never mind talking about the rate of economic growth.
Supply-siders profess no confidence that a market economy will
for the most part run by itself. Instead of sound countercyclical
budget policy -- a surplus during expansions, a deficit during
recessions -- they run on the "two
Santa Claus theory" of onetime Wall Street Journal editorialist
Jude Wanniski, appealing single-mindedly to individual greed.
I much prefer the way that Martin Feldstein put it earlier
this year at a Financial Times Deutschland symposium on "What
Remains of Keynes' Work in Today's Economics?" In fact, increased
government spending in emergencies could provide a temporary
boost to output, he wrote, "but in the longer run higher levels
of government spending crowd out private investment or require
higher taxes that weaken growth by reducing incentives to save,
invest, innovate and work." Keynes' ideas reflected the unusual
conditions of the Great Depression, said Feldstein. "Today's
macroeconomic problems require attention to more fundamental
forces of individual incentives and institutional rigidities."
Okay, so politics ain't beanbag. It ain't social science either.
Perhaps The Wall Street Journal was operating within the limits
of reasonable discourse in selling tax cuts as a magic elixir
of growth. (I still hold against them their fire-in-a-crowded-theater
claims that the Soviet Union had employed biological weapons
in Laos during the 1970s -- "Yellow Rain" -- completely unsupported
by evidence after all these years.) It may have been damning
with faint praise when Milton Friedman himself wrote in his
autobiography that "Robert Bartley's The Seven Fat Years is
a far more accurate depiction of the consequences of Reaganomics
than the distorted picture that has been churned out by Reagan's
ideological enemies." But it certainly it is true, as he continues,
that "the firmness, persistence and insight that guided [Reagan's]
policy towards the Soviet Union was a major factor in producing
the collapse of communism."
More than 250 years ago, Adam Smith put his laissez-faire economics
this way: "Little else is requisite to carry a state to the
highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism, but peace,
easy taxes and a tolerable administration of justice; all the
rest being brought about by the natural course of things." We've
added certain responsibilities to government since then -- stable
money (under the heading of justice, perhaps), sound countercyclical
budget policy, a commitment to education and fundamental research,
and sensible management of intellectual property rights. If
only that were that were the recipe of supply-side economics,
they could count me in.