Missing in the controversy over Harvard's Russia scandal
has been any attempt to explain, much less place a favorable
interpretation upon, the actions of its two principals, Andrei
Shleifer and Lawrence Summers. It's missing because none of
their many friends and allies has come publicly to their defense.
They grumble instead among themselves about how the economists
have been "screwed."
Let me sketch the outlines of what seems, at least to me,
a plausible explanation, if not exactly a defense, of what
the two men, individually and severally, thought they were
doing at certain points along the way.
It was in the mid-1990s that, while under contract to the
US Agency for International Development to provide advice
to the Russian government, Harvard economist Shleifer, his
wife, his deputy and the deputy's girlfriend went into business
in Russia for themselves. The once and future Harvard economist
Summers, Shleifer's old friend and mentor, was overseeing
US economic policy towards Russia all the while, eventually
as Treasury Secretary. He articulated no public position
on the matter, either at the Treasury Department or, later,
as president of Harvard.
The Harvard project ended abruptly in 1997, when various
investments by the leaders of the Harvard team came to light.
The US Justice Department brought fraud charges in 2000,
after Harvard declined to return its fee. Shleifer and Harvard
last year settled the case, after a long, expensive and ultimately
embarrassing legalistic defense. This year Summers announced
he would resign the presidency of Harvard University in June;
his conduct throughout the Russia scandal probably was part
of the reason his resignation was sought. What's the evidence
of that, aside from the New York Times article last month taking note the influence
of the McClintick article ("Did an Exposé Help
Sink Harvard's President?") Certainly nothing very concrete:
The little corporation that governs Harvard and which accepted
his resignation awarded him the highest honor at their disposal,
a university professorship.
Why bother to continue to probe the matter? Because it is
relevant to understanding what happens next. Summers is 51.
Shleifer is 44. Both are among a handful of mid-career professors
to have been officially deemed by their peers to be among
the world's most influential economists. Each has twenty or
thirty more years of productive work ahead -- work of some
sort.
Until both sides of the story are better told and more fully
understood, however, neither man can know with any certainty
what he can hope to accomplish next.
The story starts back in 1979. What otherwise would
be legend, we know with some certainty because Massachusetts
Institute of Technology professor Olivier Blanchard wrote
it up in 2001 for the Journal of Economic Perspectives, after Shleifer won the John Bates Clark medal of the
American Economic Association, awarded every two years to
an outstanding economist who is under forty years old.
(He edged out other contenders, thanks in part, presumably,
to the arguments of his Harvard colleague Claudia Goldin,
a member of the Honors and Awards Committee. It was Goldin,
too, who headed the search committee that a few years later
settled on Shleifer to edit the prestigious Journal of
Economic Perspectives.)
Shleifer arrived with his engineer parents in the United
States in 1976, a 15-year-old émigré from the
Soviet Union speaking very little English. He quickly enrolled
in an inner-city high school in Rochester, New York.
Two years later, by a series of fortunate accidents, he entered
Harvard College as a scholarship student. As a sophomore there,
he went to see his instructor, a young economist named Larry
Summers, with a view to correcting certain errors in Summers'
math in a recent paper.
"While characteristically unimpressed by the argument that
his work contained flaws, Larry was sufficiently impressed
to hire Andrei as his research assistant. What followed
has been a long period of close friendship and mutual education,"
Blanchard wrote. He did not speculate on the nature of the
bond. Others have felt that Shleifer possessed the gifts of
mathematical fluency and penetrating depth that Summers lacked,
while Summers brought curiosity, drive and a formidable skill
at economic argumentation to the friendship.
Something of the intellectual atmosphere in those early days
can be inferred from the toast
of J. Bradford DeLong's at the festive party in 1999, after
the Clark Medal was voted. To explain Shleifer's success
in the years since they were Harvard freshmen together, DeLong
(a professor at the University of California at Berkeley who
worked for a time under Summers at Treasury) invoked H.G.
Wells' idea of an "open conspiracy," devoted to
"the betterment of the human race," and operating
in opposition to the "small and secret conspiracies that
decided most of history."
Its members would "intensively study the social world, to
determine what institutions and practices worked and what
didn't -- what things contributed to human progress, and what
things did not." They would "communicate what they had
learned through their studies to others." Most important,
"they would be tolerant, listen[ing] to what others had to
say, to what others had learned as a result of their studies:
for no one has a monopoly on truth or on insight, and good
judgments can only be arrived at by close and open-minded
scrutiny of evidence and opinions." Others who gave speeches
that evening included MIT's Rudiger Dornbusch, Harvard's Oliver
Hart, Summers, Blanchard, Shleifer's student Florencio Lopez
de Silanes (fired last year by Yale University for double-billing
his expenses, Lopez now teaches in Europe), and Andrei's father
Mark. But it was probably DeLong who best portrayed the way
the members of group preferred to think of themselves.
Both Summers and Shleifer rose rapidly in the decade after
they met. Shleifer got his PhD at MIT, taught at Princeton
for a year, then received tenure at the Graduate School of
Business of the University of Chicago. Summers went to Washington
to work for his thesis adviser, Harvard's Martin Feldstein,
at the Council of Economic Advisers during the first Reagan
administration, then back to Harvard as one of its youngest
full professors.
In 1988, Summers was chief economic adviser to Michael Dukakis'
presidential campaign. He returned to Washington in
1990 as chief economist for the World Bank, succeeding Stanley
Fischer. In 1991, he took Shleifer along on a Bank mission
to advise the government of Lithuania. He also enthusiastically
backed Harvard's offer of a professorship, which Shleifer
took up in the autumn of that year, with some regret, since
his heart in many respects remained in Chicago. Shleifer understood,
however, that he could never hope to advise the Russian government
as long as he was associated with the famously conservative
university.
At that point, things began to get complicated. In August
1991, a coup attempt failed to dislodge Mikhail Gorbachev,
who was pursuing a gradualist approach to deregulation in
hopes of winning massive aid as part of a "Grand Bargain"
with the West. Gorbachev remained in office until December,
when Boris Yeltsin and the leaders of Belarus and Ukraine
simply withdrew from the Soviet Union. Yeltsin immediately
undertook the radical economic transformation of Russia that
Gorbachev had long resisted. The US government pledged support,
cautiously at first, then with gathering enthusiasm.
In October 1992, President George H. W. Bush signed the Open-Market
Support Act, authorizing up to $350 million in aid to Russia,
to be managed by the Agency for International Development.
A few weeks later, he was defeated by Bill Clinton, and Clinton's
advisers, Robert Rubin and Larry Summers among them, took
the conn. In December, Harvard was awarded a USAID contract
to provide unbiased advice to the Russian government on how
to convert its heavily planned economy to one governed by
market principles.
In Moscow, there was turmoil. After 75 years during which
private property beyond the level of household effects had
been all but forbidden, there was no obvious way to place
state-owned assets in private hands. Poland had led the way
into overnight deregulation in January 1990 with a "big bang"
-- prices decontrolled, the zloty devalued, private companies
permitted open for business and foreign firms to invest. The
economists around Yeltsin were determined to do the same.
They were the new Bolsheviki (the word mean majority faction), market
Bolsheviki, determined to do everything fast, on the grounds that
only an abrupt transfer of state-owned assets to private hands
could free the economy of deeply-entrenched bureaucratic control.
The best account of this I know of how this proceeded is
The
Oligarchs: Wealth and Power in the New Russia, by
David Hoffman, Washington Post bureau chief in Moscow during the second half of '90s. Embedded in Hoffman's
powerful narrative are the views, often transparently self-serving,
of many members of the braintrust which presided over the
great sell-off, including Yegor Gaidar, Anatoly Chubais and
Mikhail Berger, one-time economics editor of Izvestia.
The tension between what Yeltsin said he wanted -- "We
need millions of owners, not hundreds of millionaires,"
he would intone -- and what eventuated is painfully apparent
in The Oligarchs. Consider the following story.
Chubais, the red-haired St. Petersburg economist who played
a central role throughout, told Hoffman at one point, "Every
enterprise ripped out of the state and transferred to the
hands of a private owner was a way of destroying Communism
in Russia. This is how we understood the situation, without
any exaggeration. And every extra day we worked, we could
privatize another ten, twenty, or thirty enterprises. And
at that stage it didn't matter at all to whom these enterprises
went, who was getting the property. It was absolutely
unimportant whether that person was ready for it."
In all this Bruegelesque landscape, one citizen is of particular
interest. Meet Boris
Jordan, a young American citizen whose grandfather, also
Boris, had fought the communists across Europe as colonel
in the White Russian army, even making common cause with the
Germans for a time, eventually retreating to New York. The
younger Jordan, born in 1967, grew up amid tales of the good
old days in St. Petersburg before the revolution, went to
Russian school on Saturdays and spoke Russian at home. "An
incredible hustler," as Hoffman describes him, he yearned
to return to Russia. He even took and passed the Foreign Service
examination, "but the State Department said he would
never be sent to Russia as a diplomat." So the well-connected
youth went to work selling airplane leases in Latin America.
It was in 1992 that Hans-Joerg Rudloff, president of Credit
Suisse First Boston, hired Jordan and sent him to Moscow --
the same year that Shleifer arrived in town for USAID.
Rudloff himself had memories, of rebuilding his family's leather
factory in Germany after World War II; he had hopes that an
economic miracle would unfold in Russia as in Germany. He
paired Jordan with Steven Jennings, a veteran of the privatization
auctions that had taken place in New Zealand during the 1980s.
Their instructions: find ways of making money in the
Great Sell-Off of Russian assets.
Jordan and Jennings pursued a time-honored strategy:
they hung around the offices of the State Property Committee,
furnishing the needy young Russians who worked there with
office supplies, coffee, information. They courted Chubais,
offering to represent the government for free in the complicated
business of its first sale of state property to the public.
The enterprise was selected: Bolshevik Biscuit Company, was
a beloved cookie company that had been doing business in Moscow
since 1855. The date was set; the sale took place, in December
1992. Insiders got 51 percent of the company; outsiders, wielding
the stylishly engraved "privatization checks" the government
earlier had distributed to 148 Russian million citizens, bid
for the remaining shares. In the end, the end, Boshevik
Biscuit changed hands for $654,000.
Jennings had seen an almost identical company in Eastern
Europe sold to Pepsi for $80 million a few months earlier.
Jordan later told the Post's
Hoffman, "We looked at each other and said, 'We are on the
wrong side of this deal. We shouldn't be representing
the government. We should be buying the stuff!'"
"'We quit!' they said to each other."
And just as quickly, they went to work for the series of
bold and energetic insiders who soon would become known to
the world as Russian oligarchs.
Here, then, was one of H.G. Wells' ubiquitous "small and
secret" conspiracies throughout human history that had been
such powerful agents of change -- in this case, simply a corporation.
In the next few years, Jordan and Jennings built Credit Suisse
First Boston's Moscow office into one of the city's most powerful
investment banks.
The auction of the cookie company had inaugurated an astonishing
fire sale of Russia's assets. Factories, utilities, media,
banks, mineral rights, natural resources were sold off to
the cleverest bidders over the next few years, with little
concern for basic fairness -- and CSFB was in the thick of
it. Jordan left in 1995 to start his own investment
bank, Renaissance
Capital, and in 1998 founded Sputnik
Group as well. But his relationship with his old
employer remained extremely close, and in 1996, as Yeltsin's
government rushed to create a mutual fund industry (in the
midst of a difficult re-election campaign), it was CSFB that
elbowed its way to the head of the queue seeking to a license
to issue shares.
It was in these circumstance, then, that the mutual fund
company with which Shleifer was behind the scenes associated,
Pallada, surprised everyone by obtaining the coveted first
license from the Russian Securities Commission -- one of the
many agencies which USAID paid Shleifer to advise. A young
investment banker named Elizabeth Hebert had founded Pallada
the year before, with the assistance of Shleifer's deputy,
Jonathan Hay. Soon she became Hay's girlfriend. A few
months later Shleifer and his hedge-fund manager wife provided
crucial investment capital, and before long, Beth Hebert was
running Pallada out of the Harvard team's office, using its
phones, its faxes, its drivers. Yet it was widely recognized
that CSFB had been far ahead in the baroque process of preparing
its application.
A young lawyer who worked for Hay on the Harvard project
described what happened next when he was deposed years later
by government lawyers. Louis O'Neill said, "I went to Jon
[Hay] and said, "This is kind of strange. Why this and
not CSFB?.... He said something to me that made sense....
He said, "Well, this is a very serious pilot project.
It will be... basically, the first mutual fund in Russia.
We want to have someone as the leader, as the first person,
who we are friendly with and who we can monitor very closely
for transparency, fairness, proper procedures, proper accounting..."
I remember the phrase he used because it made sense. "We'll
run water through the pipes on this one, see where the leaks
are, fix them, and then we'll open it up to the larger market."
That to me was convincing.
"... It seems strange to me that Jonathan was running
the project, responsible for all the donor money, and his
girlfriend was in the office running a private company....
...I'd gone there sort of out of law school, excited, eager,
bright-eyed, maybe to do some good, and it all ended on a
kind of a sour note. So I just felt kind of bad about it,
kind of wished it would all go away at the time," said
O'Neill.
A few months later, whistleblowers attracted the attention
of USAID in Washington. After a brief investigation,
the government fired Harvard, and the project came crashing
down.
A mistrust of CSFB was a current theme in the government's
subsequent investigation. For instance, when in 2002
Larry Summers was asked about an attempt to penalize Credit
Suisse by excluding it from a Credit Markets Forum sponsored
by the US Treasury Department, he answered, "There were
certain clouds of impropriety, whose validity I have no ability
to judge...."
Fans of Deadwood,
HBO's horse opera set in the Black Hills in 1877 on the eve
of South Dakota's statehood, will recognize the moral climate
here. An endless series of power struggles unfold among players
of widely different backgrounds in an outlaw community in
the throes of becoming legitimate. Motives molt, alliance
shift and tactics change with each new bit of news. No one's
skirts remain completely unsoiled.
But storytelling, however compelling, is not the same as
making US government policy. If will require the work of many
scholar-years before we can reasonably compare the path
not taken in Russia -- the gradualism of the Grand Bargain
-- with the shock therapy that produced the oligarchs, the
Siloviki and
the resurgence of the state under Vladimir Putin. But it took
a Boston jury almost no time at all last year to decide that,
whatever ends Harvard Andrei Shleifer might have had
in mind, he clearly violated his agreement with the US government
when he began investing in Russia.
A comparison of the career paths of Boris Jordan and Andrei
Shleifer leaves no doubt that the two chose very different
paths -- a pursuer of commercial interests and a guardian of
pursuers of commercial interests. What happened after
their careers began to converge in Moscow in 1992 will be
a matter of speculation, probably forever. Today Jordan is
a man of enormous wealth, though he was fired by the Kremlin
in 2003 from his job as head of Russia's third biggest television
network. Chubais, who sold Russian assets to the oligarchs
in order to break the monopoly of the state, became an extremely
wealthy man himself, though with net worth of only around
$1 billion, perhaps not quite an oligarch. As head of
Russia's electricity system, he has been seeking to break
the system into competitive parts, a la American Telephone and Telegraph and the Baby Bells.
About Shleifer's innermost ambitions, we'll never know, since
his standing as Washington's privateizer-in-chief in Moscow
collapsed not long after Yeltsin's second-term began, before
the scandals of the loans-for-shares program, before Russia's
real estate property laws could be reformed. He may not know
himself. Today Shleifer lives modestly with his family
in the leafy Boston suburb of Newton, in a house that was
mortgaged as part of his settlement with the Justice Department.
A villa in France that the family is said to own wasn't in
the agreement.
But there remains the matter of the rules, as they have evolved
in the United States over the century in which official corruption
has become a crime instead of a commonplace. It is instructive
to note that whereas the State Department recognized immediately
the conflicts and character traits that disqualified Boris
Jordan from diplomatic service, Harvard not only cleared their
newly-hired professor to advise the Russians, but sent the
31-year-old émigré to Moscow as head of its
project, without civilian (non-academic) supervision.
But then that's another story.