A persistent riddle of the Andrei Shleifer case has been
the failure of three of the four major English language papers
to report in any detail the story of Harvard's failed Russia
Project. The Wall Street Journal was quick to grasp its significance in 1997. Carla
Anne Robbins' aggressive reporting on page 1 when the investigation
was new probably kept it from disappearing beneath the rug.
Robbins, who is now a WSJ editor, wrote another incisive leader last autumn,
after US District Court Judge Douglas Woodlock delivered his
verdict of fraud and breach of contract.
But The New York Times,
The Washington Post
and the Financial Times
took a pass, even after Shleifer's close friendship with Harvard
University President Lawrence Summers became an issue. Indeed,
the Times had
to run an embarrassing Editor's Note after a business page
columnist quoted Shleifer as an authority on corporate corruption
without noting that, only a few days earlier, a federal judge
had found the Harvard professor had committed massive fraud
himself.
An authoritative account of what actually happened in the
seamy affair exists only because an off-shore magazine paid
an independent reporter to study the court record and then
published his 25,000-word report. "How Harvard Lost Russia:
The inside story of what happened the enormous power and resources
of the United States government were put in the wrong hand,"
by David McClintick, appears in the January
international edition of Institutional Investor.
What's a satisfying explanation for the lack of other interest?
Simple inattention won't suffice. There were those WSJ stories, after all. A more plausible answer in
this case can be found in the continual trading of information,
appraisal, mentions, column inches, access and other favors
that is at the heart of the business of newsgathering everywhere.
What does it take to keep a watchdog quiet? Why did
Harvard fail at what would seem to have been the easier task,
short-circuiting the government investigation? Some indication
of the relative strength of forces at work here can be found
in an ingenious study of the checks and balances that underpin
democracy by John McMillan and Pablo Zoido, both of Stanford
University. It appeared a couple of years ago in the Journal
of Economic Perspectives.
Most political analysts study the institutions of democracy
one at a time, they noted, isolating a particular mechanism
in order to study it -- elections, political parties, the
judiciary, the media, and so on.
But the many elements of a democratic system form a system of incentives, they stated. Checks and balances work
insofar as they interact and reinforce each other. Opposition
parties can flourish only where the press is free. The media
can't function without judicial independence, which in turn
depends on political competition. Which of these mechanisms
is the most robust? Which is the most easily suborned? McMillan
and Zoido turned to the experience of Peru in the 1990s to
make their point. It was tantamount to a laboratory experiment.
Like every other nation in South America, Peru had been jostled
by the events of the turbulent 1970s -- the oil shocks in particular.
A military dictatorship gave way to civilian rule in 1980s,
and by 1990 all the apparatus of democracy was in place --
regular elections, opposition parties, presidential term limits,
judicial independence (with appropriate safeguards), and a
free and competitive press. On the other hand, the economy
was a shambles, mired in recession with annual inflation of
7000 percent, Shining Path guerillas were gaining strength
in the hills.
What happened next was the basis for an opera. University
administrator Alberto Fujimori defeated the novelist Mario
Varga Llosa for president in 1990. A political neophyte, Fujimori
hired as his "security adviser" and intelligence chief Vladimiro
Montesinos Torres, an army officer who in the '70s had been
cashiered for selling secret documents to the US, who in the
'80s made a living as a lawyer for drug dealers. Montesinos
was ideally prepared to play on human weakness on all sides.
Together, he and Fujimori -- El Chino (the Chinaman) to his countrymen -- proceeded to take over the state.
There were some striking early successes. Shining Path founder
Abimael Guzman was captured in 1992 and his terrorist army
collapsed. Meanwhile, "Fujishock" -- a series of macroeconomic
reforms and privatizations -- reduced the inflation rate to
around 10 percent by 1995 and stimulated steady economic growth.
The CIA liberally financed the regime, despite warnings from
the Peruvian military that Montesinos had taken over the government.
(Eventually Transparency International would declare Fujimori
the world's the sixth most successful head-of-state embezzler,
after Indonesia's Suharto, the Philippines' Marcos, Zaire's
Mobuto, Nigeria's Abacha and Serbia's Milosovic.)
And so through a combination of showmanship, bullying and,
mostly, bribery, Fujimori and his secret police chief (or,
perhaps more accurately, Montesinos and his puppet president)
took over the country. They bribed politicians, judges, bureaucrats,
journalists, business executives -- more than 1,600 of them
were kept on a regular payroll. They killed people, too, but
mostly students and peasants. "Remember why Pinochet had his
problems," Montesinos told a subordinate in a session that
was taped. "We will not be so clumsy."
Instead, they closed Congress, suspended the constitution,
reopened the "democracy" long enough to run for re-election
in 1995, then persuaded Congress to abolish presidential term
limits and won a third term in 2000. Three months later, after
an opposition television station broadcast a tape of Montesinos
paying a $15,000 bribe to a key congressman to switch sides,
the government fell, Fujimori fled to Japan (where he was
granted extradition-proof citizenship), and Montesinos sought
asylum in Venezuela. (He has since been returned to Peru,
and is awaiting trial in a maximum security prison that he
had ordered built.) Then last November, Fujimori surprised
everybody by rolling the dice one more time. He flew into
Chile and announced plans to run again for president of Peru.
He did not make his point. Peru filed extradition papers,
and Chile is slowly going through the legal procedures
McMillan and Zoido's account of Montesinos' activities as
a corrupter makes gripping reading. In the videos, he
counsels those he is bribing on cooperation: "How to friends
help friends?... They do not say, Hey, I give you this so
you do this." He gives lessons in the string-pulling arts.
He routinely presents himself as a patriot. He is driven,
he declares, "to bring peace back to the country" by ending
terrorism and the drug trade. "Here we work of the national
interest," he tells a television executive on one tape. On
another: "I get nothing out of this; on the contrary, only
hate, passions, intrigues and resentment. I do it because
of my vocation of service to the nation." After Montesinos'
arrest, Peruvian police discovered $200 million in his foreign
bank accounts. "His patriotism, evidently, did not preclude
enrichment," write the authors.
Montesinos' great gift to economic science, however, was
that he kept meticulous records. He required recipients of
his bribes to sign receipts. He routinely videotaped
himself doling out cash and explaining exactly what he expected
of those whom he paid (the tapes were quickly dubbed "Vladivideos"
when they began to be shown on national television). Stanford's
McMillan and Zoida pored over the records, compiling what
they described as price list for bribery, an instrument that
could be used to measure the strength of countervailing forces
that Montesinos was systematically disabling. They wrote,
"The size of the bribes measured what he was willing to pay
to buy off those who could check his power."
What they discovered was a well-demarcated hierarchy. A politician
was worth slightly more than a judge. But the owner of a television
station commanded about a hundred times more than a politician
-- five times more than the total of all opposition politicians'
bribes. "Each channel takes $2 million monthly, but
it is the only way," he told a subordinate. "That is why we
have won, because we have sacrificed in this way." Newspaper
bribes, while higher than those of judges and politicians,
were much less than television. The difference had to do with
scale. Montesinos explained on tape: "What do I care
about El Comercio?
They have an 80,000 print run. 80,000 newspapers is shit.
What worries me is Channel 4... It reaches 2 million people."
Thus, McMillan and Zoido concluded, the news media constitute
"the chief watchdog" in a democracy. News organs can provide
oversight even where political competition and an independent
judiciary have broken down. (It was a small independent television
station, one that Montesinos had never bribed, that aired
the tape that finally brought the Fujimori regime crashing
down.) "Safeguards for the media -- ensuring they are protected
from political influence and are credible to the public --
may be crucial policies for shoring up democracy."
Now the United States is not Peru, and Larry Summers and
Andrei Shleifer are not El Chino and Vladi, though aspects
of their relationship in the '90s do bear a certain resemblance
to the Peruvians' symbiosis -- the powerful academician in
high office and his worldly agent in the field; the delicate
issues of trust and betrayal between them.
And certainly the techniques that Fujimori and Montesinos
exploited to subvert the normal functioning of the institutions
of democracy are constantly in use with varying degrees of
subtlety in nations all around the world. For instance,
I thought immediately of Montesinos in connection with the
news earlier this month that Richard Scrushy had paid a free-lance
writer (through a public relations firm) to write several
friendly stories about him for a black-owned weekly newspaper,
the Birmingham Times. He reviewed at least two of the
articles before publication, according to the Associated Press,
which broke the story.
Scrushy, of course, is the former chief executive officer
of HealthSouth who last year was acquitted on 36 counts of
fraud, despite the testimony of many of his subordinates that
he had been the architect of an accounting scam that caused
the insurer's collapse. Audrey Lewis, the author of the articles,
told reporters for The New York Times, "I sat in that courtroom for six months, and I did everything possible
to advocate for his cause." She explained that Scrushy
had paid her $10,000, plus $1,000 to buy a computer. He paid
another $25,000 to the pastor of a church who was among a
group of African-American supporters who frequently attended
the trial, according to The Wall Street Journal. Scrushy is white. Eleven of eighteen jurors were black.
So now to the really interesting question. How did
the defendants in the Russia project --Harvard, Shleifer,
Hay and, though he was not charged with wrong-doing in the
matter, Summers -- convince the Times, the Post and the FT that the collapse
of its Russia Project was not a worthy story? What did
they say, and how did they say it? To whom, and how often?
Let me stress that there is absolutely no question of
actual money ever changing hands -- of bribery. At the pinnacles
of capitalism, the influence exchange is so deep and liquid
that cash is almost never required, except, perhaps, within
organizations, in the form of golden handshakes and the like.
Instead, the informal economy of capitalism is one of deference
and respect, of favors today and the implicit promise of favors
later, of jobs and dinner invitations and admissions to exclusive
kindergartens. Its texture is extremely uneven: dense around,
say, academic medical centers and aerospace contractors; sparse
where incentives are weak; and, at least in democracies, full
of relatively empty seams in the appropriate places, between
countervailing sectors. Anyone who doubts that this informal
economy extends to newspapers knows nothing about how newspapers
work.
It is here that temptation comes in. Many of the judgments
concerning the newsworthiness of the US government's complaints
about Harvard's Russia project were made initially by editors
in consultation with correspondents on the ground during the
1990s. All four major papers had series of superb reporters
in Moscow in those years. Most of them were partial to the
Russians' efforts to bring communism to an abrupt end, and
mindful of the allowances that Western experts had to make
in order be useful advisers to their counterparts. John Lloyd
of the Financial Times,
for example, in a lengthy article in The New York
Times Magazine, spoke for many of those correspondents when he concluded,
"Russia suffered from our mistakes and preconceptions, but
-- barring catastrophe -- ultimately will make its own accommodation.
It was never ours to lose. Russia lost, not itself but
the trust that makes societies civil and functioning."
Matters were seen quite differently In the United States,
however, first by investigators for the U.S. Agency for International
Development, which paid Harvard to advise the Russian government,
then by lawyers in the US Attorney's office in Boston to whom
they referred their findings. In Boston and Washington, most
of the advice that was given to Russian economists who were
seeking to create institutions of market economy was completely
beside the point. It was the on-the-sly personal enrichment
of the Harvard team-leaders that was viewed as being wrong.
Nor was the case ever seen as mainly a criminal matter, according
to government sources, the usual possibilities of criminal
charges of perjury having been wisely dismissed in the interests
of focusing on the underlying case, a matter of breach of
contract and fraud.
Harvard's courtroom defense turned on technicalities:
though he was projector director, Shleifer somehow wasn't
covered by the contract. Its public relations campaign deployed
a number of straw men. The prosecutor hated Harvard. Without
criminal charges, the government case was of little consequence.
The judge had declined to try the charges against the advisors'
wives. Janine Wedel, the author of a distinctly left-wing
critique of shock therapy in general and the Harvard project
in particular, "Collision
and Collusion: The Strange Case of Western Aid to Eastern
Europe," was from "another planet."
All that's been put to rest now by the McClintick account.
It is a straightforward explanation of the case that the government
finally proved against Shleifer, Hay and Harvard before a
practical and sophisticated judge. It's in the nature of the
news business that editors don't ordinarily second-guess themselves
and their reporters. They haven't time. But this is one story
where the editors of the Times,
the Post and the FT may want to "walk back the cat" in order to discover how they got left
so far behind on such an interesting story.
For at its heart, the Shleifer matter has always had less
to do with the failure to export American values to Russia than
with the inadvertent importation of Moscow rules to institutions
in the United States. That's why Harvard's cockeyed defense
is so alarming, why Shleifer's elevation to positions of ever-greater
authority in the economics profession is worrisome. No one
doubts that he is an original and productive economic thinker.
The good news is that it was Shleifer who, as editor
of the Journal of Economic Perspectives,
published McMillan and Zoido's article on Montesinos. That's
the bad news, too, since the editorship confers vast and global
favor-trading power.
The worst thing of all is that, starting with his long-time
mentor Larry Summers, Sheifer's friends don't seem to understand
that they failed the young Russian émigré in
the first instance, that they in turn have been betrayed and
embarrassed. It is true, as Edward L. Glaeser and Claudia
Goldin write in their introduction to the forthcoming "Corruption
and Reform: Lessons from America's Economic History"
that the United States "changed from a place where political
bribery was a routine event infecting politics at all
levels to a nation that now ranks among the least corrupt
in the world." But it is also true that American
aid-giving abroad in the 20th century (Herbert Hoover, George
C. Marshall, Creighton Abrams) has been remarkably free of
high level corruption -- until now.