President George W. Bush, under stress, is being pestered
by the go-for-broke supply-siders among his backers to take
an even bigger plunge than he did when be nominated White
House Legal Counsel Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court.
His candidate to succeed Alan Greenspan as chair of the Federal
Reserve Board is expected to be announced within ten days,
to allow for confirmation hearings in January, when Greenspan
must stand down at the end of month. The nominee should be
someone whose top priority is making Bush's tax cuts permanent,
according to columnist Daniel Henninger of the editorial page
of The Wall Street Journal.
"If Mr. Bush's nominee has internalized this basic supply-side
growth-and-tax dynamic as well as [the president] has, then
the new Fed chairman's monetary guideposts and fiscal incantation
should drop nicely into place," Henninger wrote Friday.
Ten days earlier, also on the Journal's editorial page, Vice President Dick Cheney's former
assistant for domestic policy, Cesar Conda, wrote that "Bush
should choose someone who not only shares his low-tax, free-market
economic philosophy, but who agrees with the fundamental premise
that supply-side economic growth does not cause inflation."
And who might that be? Conda cited former Fed governor
Manuel Johnson, former Bush chief economic adviser Lawrence
Lindsey and Dallas Fed president Robert McTeer among his top
choices. Economists Glenn Hubbard and Ben Bernanke would
also do, he wrote. As a dark horse he mentioned a name that
is sometimes heard from participants in financial markets
these days: former Sen. Phil Gramm, Republican from Texas,
currently serving as vice chairman of the investment banking
arm of UBS, the Swiss banking and financial services giant.
It was Gramm who, according to his biographer, Richard Nadler,
played a more decisive role in launching the Reagan agenda
than any other member of Congress -- ahead of Jack Kemp, Newt
Gingrich and Bob Dole. As a member of the House of Representatives,
Gramm delivered the 40 southern "Boll Weevil" Democrats whose
cooperation was necessary to pass Reagan's tax cuts into law,
then became a Republican himself and went on to the Senate
(and a seat on its Finance Committee) until 2002.
A PhD economist with more than 20 years of legislative politics
behind him, Gramm has a degree of stature that the other frequently-mentioned
candidates lack, with the exception of Harvard's Martin Feldstein.
He would be the beneficiary of a certain amount of senatorial
courtesy in confirmation hearings. But he also possesses a
slew of negatives, many of them which became apparent in the
course of an abortive run for the Republican presidential
nomination in 1996.
"There are two things you've got to remember about Phil Gramm,"
said former Texas Democratic congressman Marvin Leath. "Number
one, he's smarter than you are. Number two, he's meaner than
a junkyard dog."
In advocating that Bush choose a Fed chairman who was pledged
to put his political agenda ahead of maintaining price stability,
the supply-siders (who still form an important segment of
the president's restive base) are willfully ignoring the hard-won
lessons of nearly thirty years of commitment to price stability.
Politicizing the mission of the central bank would be a colossal
mistake.
* * *
An interesting turmoil has been unfolding in the economics
department at Columbia University. That Columbia has been
recruiting extensively among economists is no secret. Once
one of the world's leading centers of economic research, Columbia
fell off the peak in the years after World War II and fetched
up on a plateau where it remained until the 1970s, whereupon
it fell off once again.
For years its greatest success has come in adding celebrities
-- notably Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz and development economist
Jeffrey Sachs -- to the ranks of its aging stars, the late
William Vickrey and Kelvin Lancaster; the altogether vigorous
trio of Robert Mundell, Edmund Phelps and Jagdish Bhagwati.
Meanwhile, downtown, New York University's economics department
surged past its older rival professionally, on the strength
of a wing, a prayer, and an ambitious president. The Columbia
department slowly built its traditional strengths in international
trade, industrial organization and public finance, while the
business school next door positively thrived. (Former Bush
chief economist and Fed possibility R. Glenn Hubbard is its
dean.)
After Lee Bollinger took over as Columbia's president in
2002, he pledged $10 million to create 13 new positions in
the economics department, part of a drive to move the entire
university up a notch. Chair Donald Davis's first pronounced
success came in prying macroeconomist Michael Woodford out
of Princeton in 2004, thanks to an accompanying offer to his
wife by the New York Fed.
Earlier this year, Columbia snagged seven more of those to
whom they had made offers, including contract theorists Patrick
Bolton from Princeton and Pierre-Andre Chiappori from Chicago.
The achievement was celebrated earlier this month in a lengthy
feature story in New York magazine by New Republic
senior editor Noam Scheiber.
But Scheiber's interesting piece ended with a dark foreboding.
"Could something akin to an eclipse cause everyone to decide
at the same time that Columbia's economics department was
in a downward spiral?"
The answer, apparently, was yes.
Scheiber wrote, "Consider the case of a recent Nobel Prize
winner from Chicago who had been actively pursued by Columbia.
He is a brilliant research and despite his age (he's 61),
continues to be one of the most prolific economists around.
But, as one senior economist at a top-five school puts it,'
He is one of those guys best appreciated at a distance -- personally,
he's very much a menace.'
"The prickly genius poses a dilemma: On the one hand,
it is hard to say no to a Nobel Prize winner still in his
productive years. On the other hand, with someone who has
a reputation for being particularly hard on younger economists
-- precisely the kind of people Columbia still needs to recruit
and retain -- Ôit could be like 1929 on Wall Street, where
you're watching assistant professors jump out the window,'
says the senior economist."
The Chicagoan is James Heckman, who taught at Columbia for
a couple of years in the 1970s after graduate school at Princeton.
The last few years haven't been easy ones at Chicago, thanks,
in part, to Heckman's various battles with his peers. In the
end, he wanted to move back to New York.
Alas, Columbia and Heckman failed to come to terms. The department
was said to be deeply riven. Among those said to have been
leading the charge against Heckman was said to have been Bhagwati,
a trade theorist now presiding over an interdisciplinary center
for the study of immigration.
It's true that Heckman is a handful: quick to anger, slow
to relent, unusually highly paid. It is also true that he
is one of the brightest, most thoroughly engaged economists
of his generation, deeply liberal and positioned at the intersection
of the most interesting controversies in labor economics.
It was disappointing in the extreme that Columbia and Heckman
couldn't find a way to agree.
* * *
Are you perplexed at the uproar over New York Times reporter Judith Miller -- "Miss Run Amok," as she has
described herself to friends? She is the reporter
recently released from jail after she finally decided to testify
before a grand jury investigating various government leaks.
Enthusiasm for the investigation itself is, of course, mainly
rooted in disagreement over the decision to go to war in Iraq.
But to understand the newspaper's failure to give a convincing
account of the internal byplay in the intricate case, you
need look no further than page 560 of The Trust: The Private
and Powerful Family behind the New York Times,
the 1999 biography of the Ochs and Sulzberger clans by Susan
Tifft and Alex Jones.
You learn that, after 27-year-old Arthur O. Sulzberger Jr.
and his wife moved to Washington D.C. in the autumn of 1978,
they shared a house some summers on the Eastern shore of Maryland
with Steven Rattner and Rattner's then-girlfriend, Judith
Miller.
Sulzberger worked with Rattner and Miller in the Times' Washington bureau. They and six or seven other reporters
formed the kind of "reportorial brat pack" that is common
enough in the news business among the young and mostly unattached,
meeting nightly after work for drinks.
Twenty-five years later, Sulberger, 54, is chairman of the
New York Times company and publisher of the Times. Rattner, having left the newspaper after a few years to become
a remarkably successful investment banker, remains one of
his closest friends. According to writer Michael Wolff, they
regularly go together to the gym.
And Miller? Sulzberger has famously said that he can't
be friends with Times reporters. But reporter Franklin Foer, writing in New
York magazine a year and
a half ago, noted that Miller's professional success is often
ascribed at least partly to "the Sulzberger factor."
And certainly the publisher was conspicuous before and during
the 85 days of her incarceration, visiting her in jail, accompanying
her to her grand jury testimony, treating her to a massage,
a manicure, a martni and a steak dinner at Washington's Ritz-Carlton
hotel after her release. The Times editorial page, which he supervises, thundered repeatedly
in her support.
Foer writes, "There's no evidence that Sulzberger ever directly
intervened to help Miller, and Miller has undergone enough
career reversals to make this hard to believe. Still, that
friendship has become well-known within the newsroom. Fairly
or unfairly, there's a sense that Miller has protection at
the absolute top."
Yet these details weren't included in the paper's October
16 story about "The Miller Case" by Don Van Atta Jr., Adam
Liptak and Clifford Levy. They weren't mentioned in an otherwise
authoritative New York Observer article a few days later which described the Times' account as "a tale of a dysfunctional staffer
running loose at a dysfunctional institution, with historic
consequences."
Instead, near the end of the newspaper's own story, a well-respected
Times reporter, Todd
Purdum, was quoted talking about the controversy in what amounted
to code. "[M]ost people I talk to have been troubled and puzzled
by Judy's ability to operate outside of conventional reportorial
channels and managerial controls. Partly because of that,
many people have wondered about whether this was the proper
fight to fight."
The New York Times
is a great and generally beloved newspaper. Historically,
its owners have been accorded a cloak of near-invisibility.
But, because of accidents of history, the Times
today is being run by an insecure publisher who is temperamentally
ill-suited to the task. The reasons that Arthur Sulzberger
feels the need to prove himself are complicated. It took a
book as thorough and persuasive as The Trust to make them clear.
It was one thing when his ambitious schemes were confined
to the organization itself: the early passion for mission
statements, cross-functional committees and "total quality
management" metrics; the hare-brained scheme at the height
of the stock market bubble to enrich a few executives by spinning
off an Internet "tracking stock"; the plunge into television
production and the subsequent retreat.
But now the publisher's itch to make his mark has put the
credibility of the Times
itself at risk -- for a second time. Sulzberger's decision
to commission a dramatic overhaul of the paper he inherited
from his father produced the first debacle -- well-documented
by Howell Raines, the prepotencia executive editor who devised it and sought to carry
it out, and whom he abruptly fired when things didn't work
out.
The decision to back reporter Miller to the hilt (and, afterwards,
blithely assert, "This car had her hand on the wheel because
she was the one at risk") has produced a significantly more
serious crisis. Last week Miller told Times public editor Byron Calame, "He galvanized the editors,
the senior editorial staff.... He metaphorically and literally
put his arm around me." The newspaper's own account, however,
published a few days before, ascribed no such role to a man
who, as publisher, ordinarily is expected permit the newsroom
to manage itself.
The editorial staff can't fire the publisher. And, as Manhattan
chronicler Kurt Anderson writes in New York
magazine the upcoming week, Sulzberger won't fire himself.
Only the thirteen cousins of the fourth generation of the
Sulzberger family, who have pooled their shares in a single
trust that votes 85 percent of the company's controlling Class
B shares, can do something about the situation.
Like what? The alternative to Arthur Sulzberger Jr. is 53-year-old
Lynn Iphigene Dolnick, his cousin. Her mother, Ruth
Sulzberger, took over as publisher of the family's ancestral
newspaper, The Chattanooga Times,
in 1965, after her first marriage broke up. Dolnick's grandmother,
the founder's daughter, Iphegene Ochs Sulzberger (1892-1990),
steadied the paper behind the scenes for 70 years.
And Dolnick's own fifteen-year career at Washington's National
Zoo has been a model of out-of-the limelight success. (Never
mind her PhD in molecular biology from Brandeis University.)
In 1996 she was the first fourth-generation member of the
family elected by her cousins to join her aunts and uncle
on the board of the Times'
controlling trust. She was named to the board of the company
itself earlier this year.
Thirteen years is long enough for a favorite son who has
embroiled the newspaper in one steadily-growing crisis after
another since becoming publisher. The Times' reputation is at stake. Replacing the publisher with
his cousin is the answer.