The last great financial scandal of the 1990s wrapped up in
court last week when Harvard University agreed to pay the US
government $26.5 million to settle charges that its star economics
professor Andrei Shliefer had sought to gain a personal fortune
while leading Harvard's government-sponsored mission to Moscow
The settlement put an end to eight years of legal wrangling.
US Attorney Michael Sullivan said in a statement, "The
defendants were entrusted with the important task of assisting
in the creation of a post-Communist Russian open-market economy
and instead took the opportunity to enrich themselves."
Shleifer and his wife, hedge fund operator Nancy Zimmerman,
will pay $2 million and $1.5 million respectively, according
to the settlement (the latter sum having been previously announced).
Shleifer's deputy, Jonathan Hay, will pay as much as $2 million
over ten years, if he can earn it as a lawyer in London.
Altogether, it adds up to around $31 million, or most of the
roughly $40 million that the government paid Harvard to provide
disinterested advice to the Russian government.
Adjust for interest cost, on the other hand, which in the worst
case accrues at the rate of 1 percent a month on paid-out sums
from the moment the contract is first breached (in this case,
early 1994) and the actual recovery is less -- something less
than half the money that Harvard garnered under the contracts.
For all the parties, the agreement avoids the costs and risks
of a jury trial.
Bill Clinton barely had been elected president when, in December
1992, the US Agency for International Development hired Harvard's
Institute for International Development to counsel the government
of Boris Yeltsin in creating confidence in fair play in Russia's
emerging financial markets.
Less than five years later, in mid-1997, USAID abruptly shut
the project down, amid charges by American whistle-blowers in
Moscow that its Harvard leaders were ostentatiously lining their
pockets.
After extensive grand jury hearings, US attorney Donald Stern
in Boston put aside his criminal investigation and in September
2000 filed a treble damages civil suit instead, charging fraud,
asserting that various conflicts by the project leaders and
their wives had undercut the fundamental purpose of the mission
and led to its collapse.
Harvard's potential exposure under the government's claim --
$120 million.
But last year US District Court Judge Douglas Woodlock dismissed
the charge of deliberate fraud against the university's part
and found instead that Harvard simply had failed to deliver
the disinterested advice called for by its contract. General
counsel Robert Iuliano expressed the university's relief that
the court had found "no institutional wrongdoing"
and promised more vigilant compliance efforts in the future.
But the brazen attitude adopted by Shleifer at the end of the
government's long quest means the drama now will shift to two
other realms. To Harvard University, where he teaches.
And to the economics profession, where Shleifer is editor of
a major journal.
There's also the world of big-time magazine journalism. Investigative
reporter David McClintok (his 1982 book Indecent Exposure was a best-selling chronicle of corruption in the movie
industry) is preparing a substantial article.
"An individual can fight the unlimited resources of the
government for only so long," said Shleifer in a
statement. "After eight long years, I have decided to end
this now--without any admission of liability on my part.
I strongly believe I would have prevailed in the end, but my
lawyers told me my legal fees would exceed the amount that I
will be paying the government."
So much for what Judge Woodlock found -- that, once installed
by the US as its adviser to Russian president Boris Yeltsin,
Shleifer invited his deputy Hay to invest with him in Russian
oil stocks despite contract prohibitions against such investments,
then gradually upped the ante.
Their illicit activities culminated in an attempt (at a regulatory
agency they advised) to vault to the head of the licensing queue
a company formed by Shleifer's wife and Hay's girlfriend to
offer the first Russian mutual funds. That was the caper which
scandalized Harvard's Moscow office. USAID investigated and
swiftly shut the project down.
Whatever other undertakings the quartet had contemplated never
will be known. Government prosecutors extensively deposed Harvard
figures involved in property estate markets -- real estate being
an asset class that never quite made it to the Yeltsin government
"loans for shares" program that created the small
band of extremely wealthy Russians known as oligarchs.
The Harvard case is a major story in Russia, where privatization
of state-owned assets to the oligarchs is regarded as something
less than a complete success. But the Financial Times last week
ignored the settlement, The New York Times and Washington Post
ran Associated Press accounts, and The Boston Globe buried the
story at the bottom of its metro page. Such is the power of
money to obscure. Only The Wall Street Journal gave the story
any ink -- the redoubtable Carla Anne Robbins has followed it
from the beginning.
Because it was conditioned by conjectures on all sides about
the likely findings of a shadow jury, the case ends having provided
little illumination of what the defendants are worth. The lawyer
Hay, a former Rhodes Scholar and Harvard Law School graduate,
is viewed as relatively impecunious. He lives in London with
his wife and three children.
His settlement agreement calls for an initial payment of $500,000
over the course of the next year, followed by future payments
for eleven years of some fraction of his net after-tax income,
unless he can rustle up an exit payment of between $1 and $2
million, depending on the date. Harvard, which fired the unlucky
consultant as soon as its contract was cancelled, has refused
to pay his legal bills.
Shleifer, however, is another matter. He continues to
be employed by the university. His endowed chair in the economics
department is intact. Harvard is viewed as being unlikely to
pay his legal bills, which are steep. (Apparently the matter
is a serious bone of contention.) His house in suburban Newton
is mortgaged to the government as part of his promise to pay
$2 million over the next three years.
But with a long history of successful investing (there is no
telling what were his gains while he was advising Russia), a
well-to-do wife, a family house in France (according to fellow
economists), a variety of offers from other universities and
powerful friends on six continents, he is nothing if not a man
with options.
Even so, Shleifer has been the less interesting figure in the
case all along. Not that he is not compelling -- one of
the economics profession's leading experts on corruption now
discovered to have been memorably corrupt himself. Raised
in the former Soviet Union until he was 16, Shleifer was swept
into Harvard and MIT on scholarship, then sent out to the frontiers
of policy economics by the time he was 30 years old -- hardly
long enough to learn the folkways of the university, much less
the broader world beyond.
Yet he is an academic expert on psychology and economics, on
comparative political systems and financial markets, a winner
of the John Bates Clark Medal as the best American economist
under forty -- in short, probably a bigger factor in luring
top graduate students to Harvard economics than all but one
or two others in his department..
In fact, Shleifer is more than little like the famous baseball
player Rafael Palmiero, who last spring raised his voice and
jabbed his finger at the members of Congress questioning him
as he denied taking steroids ("Period!" "Never!"),
who then tested positive weeks later for a drug that may have
been the injected steroid stanozolol.
Palmiero is a superb ball player, one of only six to have hit
500 home runs and collected 3000 hits in the history of the
game -- a record that would surely have qualified him for baseball's
Hall of Fame if it weren't for the steroid scandal.
But like Shleifer, Palmiero is a highly talented refugee from
a socialist culture, in his case, Cuba. His contempt for government
is built-in. It is not surprising that he did not understand
his peril when subpoenaed to testify under oath.
The real fault in baseball's steroid scandal is with the people
who own the game. In the mid-1990s, they feared baseball was
losing its attractiveness to fans -- especially after a players'
strike shut down the 1994 season in August. It was then
that owners turned a blind eye to growing use of steroids by
the athletes they employed (and engineered perhaps slight changes
to the specifications of the ball as well), in hopes that the
subsequent chase for records would lure fans back to the game.
About this, at least, they were not mistaken.
(Perhaps not surprisingly, President George W. Bush, a former
part-owner of the Texas Rangers, for whom Palmiero played for
a time, said he believed the ballplayer's newly-qualified denials
-- "not intentionally or knowingly" -- despite the
evidence of the drug test. In his 2004 State of the Union
address, the president condemned the use of steroids, warning
that American youth were beginning to believe that "performance
is more important than character.")
A somewhat more intriguing figure than Shleifer in the Russia
Project is economist Lawrence Summers, Shleifer's mentor and
old friend, who taught him as an undergraduate; sent him to
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to train; took him
to Lithuania to practice country-doctoring; brought him
back from the University of Chicago to teach at Harvard; helped
put him in the Russia job; oversaw, as an increasingly senior
Treasury Department official, Shleifer's efforts in Moscow;
and, once he returned to Harvard as president, defended his
protégé.
Friendship explains much of Summers' role. A combination of
patriotism, arrogance, marital hard times and plain bad judgment
explains the rest. The Harvard president is in a world of woe.
The likelihood that justice will be meted out to him on any
separable basis is not great. The Bad-News Train is bearing
down on Larry Summers at 40 miles per hour.
So the really interesting figure in the Russia Project case
is Harvard itself, meaning the university's headquarters in
Massachusetts Hall, the officials then in charge who in 2000
made the decisions to defend their young star, President Neil
Rudenstine and Provost Harvey Fineberg; and, of course,
the 60-person Department of Economics itself.
Why not acknowledge obvious wrongdoing? Why prefer intelligence
to integrity? In the autumn, the venue of the Shleifer matter
will shift to the inner councils of the Harvard faculty and
to the economics profession. These are the questions they'll
be asking then.