A shim is a piece of stone, wood or metal, usually tapered
and used as a filler or leveler between components that otherwise
wouldn't fit together smoothly. You see shims in the stone
walls of old cathedrals, between pieces of furniture and the
floor, and, if you know where to look, in the Boeing 727.
Such was the complexity of manufacturing that great icon
of the jet age -- it first rolled out in 1962, and nearly
1300 of the 1800 planes delivered are still flying -- that
one manager who worked on the project estimates that a 727
weighing 44 tons typically contained a half-ton of shims.
The development of the airliner took nearly seven years.
Five thousand engineers worked on it. Nobody could be certain
that the blueprints were consistent, so the first step was
to build a full-scale model.
Only then could blueprint specs be translated into settings
for machine tools. But naturally the parts fit together
imperfectly. So assembly workers adjusted them by hand with
metal shims to insure the plane was tight
This story, from The New Division
of Labor: How Computers are Changing the Job Market, by
Frank Levy and Richard J. Murnane, is designed to underscore
the significance of what happened next.
For when the 777 model came along in 1994, it required only
barely five years to build, even though it was much bigger
and more complex. No mock-up model was required. No more paper
blueprints. The 777 was the first airplane to be completely
designed with computers, which insured the internal consistency
of its parts.
Using computer-assisted design and manufacturing software
purchased from the French engineering company Dassault, Boeing
engineers were able to take their numerically-controlled machine
tool settings directly from their plans. The plane fit together
smoothly as a result.
The manufacturer boasted, "The first 777 was just .023
of an inch -- about the thickness of a playing card -- within
perfect alignment while most airplane parts line up within
half an inch of each other."
Among the results: there no more jobs for highly-skilled
operators of turret lathes, far fewer blue collar workers
on the assembly lines. Component-manufacturing plants
can be located anywhere around the world, partly in response
to political pressure from customers, since Boeing knew that
the parts would fit together seamlessly.
Boeing headquarters relocated from parochial Seattle to cosmopolitan
Chicago. Competition with the European Airbus syndicate stiffened.
Investors' returns from airframe companies gyrated with each
twist of what author John Newhouse long ago called "the
sporty game." And, not least, better planes were offered
for a much broader market for air travel.
The New Division of Labor is a fascinating book. Not since the mathematical economist Truman Bewley
interviewed 300 business executives and labor leaders for
Why Wages Don't Fall during a Recession
have sophisticated economists waded so deeply into the real-world
circumstances of the important problem they are seeking to
understand.
Levy and Murnane's project is designed to get at the consequences
underlying the new division of labor among people and computers.
Just as in the 19th and 20th centuries the advent of ubiquitous
engines and motors altered the value traditionally placed
on human strength and endurance, so computers in the 20th
and 21st centuries are displacing skills possessed by a good
proportion of the population that, until recently, were enough
to earn a good living.
"In an increasingly computerized world," they ask,
"what well-paid work is left for people to do both now
and in the future? How can people learn to do the skills to
do this work?"
The authors have a history of this sort of thing. Levy, a
professor of economics in the department of Planning and Urban
Studies at MIT, is the author of Dollars
and Dreams, a classic survey of the changing distribution
of income in the United States. Murnane, professor at
Harvard University's Graduate School of Education, wrote Who
Will Teach?, a study of the forces that are rapidly changing
the composition of the public teaching force.
Together, they wrote Teaching
the New Skills, a manifesto on education reform. And with
MIT economist David Autor, they co-authored "The Skill
Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical
Exploration," a 2003 article in the Quarterly Journal
of Economics that forms the backbone of this book.
Their conclusion: a new kind of "hollowing-out"
of the labor force is taking place. As recently as 1970, half
of all US adults worked in two broadly-defined occupational
classifications: blue collar jobs and clerical jobs. "Few
people got rich off these jobs, but they supported middle-
and lower middle-class living and many were open to high school
graduates.
Today, they say, the total is under 40 percent, and many
of these jobs require at least some college education. The
trend is expected to continue. Of course new opportunities
are opening up as well, but the new jobs are of two quite
different sorts, they say.
There are jobs for janitors, cafeteria workers, security
guards and the like, that pay poorly and offer little chance
of advancement. There are more of these jobs than there used
to be, but the greater growth has been among higher-paying
jobs -- managers, doctors, lawyers, engineers, teachers and
technicians.
Two facts about these better-paying jobs stand out, the authors
say. They require extensive skills. And most involve
the use of productivity-enhancing computers, even if that
means no more than learning to read in rapid fashion from
a series of drop-down menus designed to elucidate a series
of choices -- in an automotive garage, say, or in the office
of a health insurance company.
About the lowest-paying jobs, Murnane and Levy have relatively
little to say. It has long been noted that technological
change creates losers as well as winners, and mechanisms whereby
winners can make life easier for losers without seriously
diminishing their own gains. Often these take the form of
tax-financed retirement and health insurance systems. Combined
with a little day-to-day respect, such measures can go a long
way in conferring dignity on menial work.
Why should anyone worry about basic fairness? Because "Our
market economy exists in a framework of institutions that
requires the consent of the governed," they write. "People
doing well today have a strong interest in preserving this
consent. If enough people come to see the US job market as
stacked against them, the nation's institutions will be at
great risk."
It is on access to those better-paying jobs that Levy and
Murnane spend most of their effort. They identify two
sets of skills in particular whose value has been increased
by the advent of computers.
They are what the authors call "expert thinking,"
meaning identifying and resolving uncharted problems, and
"complex communication," meaning conveying not just
information but a particular interpretation of information.
Most of their readable book is devoted to illustrating what
this means, and offering suggestions as to how the skills
can be better taught.
One chapter begins with an anxious Victor Hugo querying his
publisher with a single pen-stroke about the success of his
latest book -- "?" The publisher, not to be outdone,
answers with a pen-stroke of his own -- "!"
Communications among humans are rarely so efficient, the authors
say.
Hence complex communication involves teaching understanding,
gaining trust and negotiating outcomes. The chapter
that begins with Hugo visits a circuit board designer in New
Hampshire, a second-grade classroom, a Chicago investment
brokerage, a renovation specialist in Boston -- and ends with
a discussion of the indispensability of the telephone help
desk that is reached by an icon on the Lands End Web site.
The shims most needed today, in other words, are human.
Chances are they will be in demand for many generations to
come.