The remarkable thing about Bill Clinton's "My Life"
is the short shrift it gives to what happened in America in
1980.
Considering the impact of Franklin Delano Roosevelt on the
formation of Clinton's own view of politics (long before he
ever heard of John F. Kennedy), you would have thought he
might have given more attention to the presidency of Ronald
Reagan.
FDR and Lincoln were his favorite presidents, he writes.
Clearly he thinks the United States reached a dramatic turning
point in 1932. FDR was elected then. He sought to end the
Great Depression, to create the modern mixed economy, and
to lay the groundwork necessary to emerge victorious from
World War II.
Was there not a similar turning point in 1980?
But then Clinton's book is not about politics in its broad
sweep. Understandably, it is, more than anything else, about
his impeachment and attempted conviction by the Republicans.
More than a quarter of its pages (and many of its most interesting
passages) unfold between special prosecutor Kenneth Starr's
first substantative appearance and his last.
Like many others, I have been browsing through the 957 pages
of "My Life." After five months in Europe, my resolve
is to catch up with the best of the books I had missed while
I was away. And potentially, at least, Clinton has much
to say about the political narrative thread of our times.
After all, he is the candidate who took over from the Republican
Party after twelve years and ran the economy handily for eight
years -- becoming the first Democrat to be elected to a second
term since Roosevelt himself.
Unfortunately, there is precious little analysis about how
he thinks he did it.
To judge from Clinton's account, the year 1980 holds no special
significance for Americans. It was the year 1968, he
writes. "that broke open the nation and shattered the
Democratic Party; the year that conservative populism replaced
progressive populism as the dominant political force in or
nation; the year that law and order and strength became the
province of Republicans, and Democrats became associated with
weakness, chaos, and out-of-touch self-indulgent elites; the
year that led to Nixon, then Reagan, the Gingrich, then George
W. Bush."
For most of us, however, 1968 was merely the Crack-Up --
the year when the strains of the New Deal alliance began to
show. It was 1980 in which America began to regain a broad
dogma resembling the New Deal consensus (if the word had not
become so depleted of meaning, I would call it a political
paradigm) that which had governed winning politics for the
previous 48 years. The 1970s were a kind of dismal (if entertaining!)
interregnum between the two, a period of crisis in which Richard
Nixon turned out to be the last liberal president, operating
for the most part in the tradition of the New Deal.
Nixon's resignation, the fall of South Vietnam, the oil crisis,
the rise of Japan, the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan,
the fall of the Shah of Iran, runaway inflation and a pair
of unusually severe business cycles were the dominating events
of the decade.
Throughout the '70s, forces now misleadingly summarized as
"neoconservative" were gathering strength -- among
Democrats as well as Republicans. Hard-line foreign policy
Democrats such as Henry ("Scoop") Jackson insisted
on tougher attitudes in bargaining with the Soviet Union.
Governors led by Michael S. Dukakis of Massachusetts and Jimmy
Carter of Georgia gained office on the strength of pledges
to cut the growth of government. Democratic legislators, including
Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, Rep. John Moss and Sen. Harrison Williams,
pushed deregulation in transportation and financial services.
Democrat stalwart Paul Volcker and his allies began an epic
battle against inflation as chairman of the Federal Reserve
Board.
Moreover, similar developments occurred all around the world
in those years. Margaret Thatcher was named Britain's prime
minister in 1979. China turned onto what it described as "the
capitalist road." So did Chile, though it required a
military coup. Franco died, and Spain and Portugal overcame
longstanding divisions and opened up their economies to the
world. In Poland, the "Solidarity" movement gathered
force. And the Soviet Union itself lost moral force.
Even though he was by no means alone in starting it, Ronald
Reagan got the entire credit for what happened next. He ended
the Cold War in victory, says his friend Milton Friedman,
"by outspending the Soviet Union instead of having to
outfight them on a bloody battlefield." He took the recession
that broke inflation. He cut government red tape. And, by
slashing tax rates, he "[cut] the Congress' allowance"
and so slowed the growth of government.
To which it could be added, Reagan also restored faith in
market forces, permitting the restructuring of the American
economy, breaking up the telephone system and freeing IBM
to compete with Microsoft in a single day.
In fact, Reagan probably deserves all this credit and more.
These things all happened on his watch, even if the trends
themselves had been in train for years. (Some of the events
he had set in motion himself, with his famous nominating speech
for Barry Goldwater in 1964). He embraced developments, took
decisive action to further them.
Taken together, don't Reagan's achievements add up to a long-term
redirection of American politics as distinctive as Roosevelt's
New Deal? And even if they weren't precisely symmetrical (and
naturally they weren't), don't they add up to the same kind
of watershed for the current generation, even if they were
different in degree?
Especially significant is the fact that Reagan didn't so
much repudiate the New Deal as build upon Roosevelt's legacy.
He plumped for the progressive income tax and signed a landmark
bill into law in 1986, appointed the commission that in 1983
restored the Social Security system to fiscal balance (until
the current administration abandoned his policy), and faced
up to the bourgeoning problem of the international order,
especially in Eastern Europe.
Certainly Reagan was not as personally imposing as Lincoln,
as masterful as FDR. That's why we have books like Dutch
by Edmund Morris, seeking to convey how Reagan's much-noted
sunny optimism and simplicity served to achieve his goals.
There were some sore losers in those years, too, among the
Democrats. Witness the plethora of special prosecutors that
were appointed, setting the stage for the astonishing breakdown
of civility in the '90s.
The point is that any account that doesn't begin by taking
note with this world-wide Turn -- die Wende,
as the Germans call it -- is unlikely to persuade a majority
of voters going forward. But there is no such recognition
in Clinton's book. The insular and unimaginative phrase
with which Americans describe these momentous events is "the
Reagan Revolution." The only time it appears in his book
is when Hillary Rodham Clinton opines that probably it would
not be over in 1988.
Perhaps it is unfair to ask Bill Clinton to elucidate the
significance of the Reagan Revolution -- a little like expecting
Dwight Eisenhower after stepping down in 1960 to celebrate
the achievements of the New Deal, even though for eight years
he had served as faithful steward of most of Roosevelt's program.
Yet we look to opposition leaders like Eisenhower, Clinton
and, now, John Kerry to merge these stories -- to pitch tents
big enough to permit growing numbers of voters to cross over
to without the sense that they are abandoning hard-win gains.
That is how politics goes forward.
Perhaps Kerry will succeed in 2004. If he fails, another
Democrat will get another chance in 2008 -- and then, almost
certainly succeed. The strains on the consensus we describe
as the Reagan Revolution are growing daily. The pace of change
has quickened somewhat. Before long, the Republicans
will face their 1968.