A pair of very interesting
books has appeared this month, examining the two sides of
the coin of modern life.
In The
Birth of Plenty: How the Prosperity of the Modern World Was
Created, William Bernstein seeks the wellsprings
of industrial civilization and its accomplishments
In The
Company of Strangers: A Natural History of Economic Life,
Paul Seabright thoughtfully explores the potential vulnerability
of the cooperation on which economic life depends.
Bernstein is a physician in
North Bend, Oregon. In the larger world, he is better known
as a money manager; indeed, he has been slowly giving up his
neurology practice in favor of writing and running no-frills
portfolios for a handful of very high net-worth individuals.
He is as well the author of
a pair of successful books of a few years back -- the best-seller
The Four Pillars of Investing,
"for the liberal arts audience," he says, and The
Intelligent Asset Allocator for sophisticated investors.
But it is as editor of Efficient Frontier
that Bernstein is probably best known. This "online journal
of practical asset allocation," a Web-based quarterly
commentary on money management, has a broad and affectionate
audience among professionals.
It keeps readers abreast of
new developments, burrows deep to investigate extravagant
claims, and otherwise maintains a steady narrative of what
truly is the Greatest Game -- the maddeningly complex sport
of trying to out-earn all the others over time.
(Bernstein is no relation
to the legendary Peter Bernstein, another money manager/writer
who in founded the Journal of Portfolio Management more than
thirty years ago. But the spirit of his enterprise is similar.)
The Birth of Plenty is an account of Bernstein's reading of the literature
of economic growth and development. It tells a familiar story,
different mainly in its emphases from Nathan Rosenberg and
L.E. Birdzell Jr.'s 1987 How the West Grew Rich: The Economic
Transformation of the Industrial World.
The "plenty" of
Bernstein's title is the familiar litany of the improvements
in living standards of the masses since, say, 1820. Increased
life expectancies, diminished infant mortality rates, better
life-long health, higher education levels, growing immunity
to war (at least for most of the human population) and, of
course, vastly increased per capita income with which to purchase
an expanded array of goods and services -- these are some
of the yardsticks that he cites.
His aim, he says, is "to
uncover the cultural and historical factors that came together
in the early 19th century and ignited the great economic takeoff
of the modern world," in hopes of discovering a recipe
that will work anywhere it is tried.
He identifies a "four-factor
framework" necessary to sustained economic growth, and
writes a lively chapter about each of those factors. Property
rights, including personal safety (from Sir Edward Coke to
Ronald Coase). Scientific institutions, to investigate and
make sense of the world (Francis Bacon and all that). Capital
markets, to assure that new inventions can be developed (their
remarkable evolution from place to place over time). And good
transportation and communication systems for people and goods
(waterwheels, steam engines, the telegraph and all the rest.)
Then comes a rapid-fire history
of prosperity itself: winners (Holland and England), also-rans
(Spain, France and Japan) and did-not-plays (the Ottoman Empire
and Latin America.) Finally there are several chapters of
prescriptions of various sorts.
This isn't economics, but
it is very good reading, one interesting story after another,
told by a lively and energetic mind.
xxxxx
Paul Seabright, on the other
hand, /is/ an economist, and one of the more peripatetic.
Educated at Oxford in the 1980s, he spent the 1990s as Assistant
Director of Research at Cambridge University. Since 2000,
he has been professor of economics at the University of Toulouse.
He displays in considerable
detail the interest in evolutionary biology that has been
sweeping economics for a decade or so, especially in the United
Kingdom. And he writes beautifully as well. His book is a
dazzling display of erudition, loosely patterned on The
Wealth of Nations,
with literary allusions and anecdotes from his travels scattered
throughout.
The first part of The Company
of Strangers rehearses
that familiar insight that essentially no one is "in
charge" of markets. This is, perhaps, as astonishing
today as when is was when Adam Smith first pointed out that
market order arises spontaneously, "as if arranged by
an Invisible Hand."
So to capture our everyday
capacity to trust the world, Seabright introduces the concept
of "tunnel vision" -- meaning "to play one's
part in the great complex enterprise of creating the prosperity
of a modern society without knowing or necessarily caring
very much about the overall outcome."
But he goes a smidgen deeper
than this. He asks what is it that permits humans to surmount
their hunter-gatherer instincts in order to sustain the kinds
of intricate webs of trust that are required to, say, exchange
a credit card number for a sack-full of groceries?.
"Human beings ten thousand
years ago had inherited a psychology that made them intensely
suspicious of strangers and capable of savage violence towards
them under some circumstances, but able to benefit spectacularly
from institutional arrangements that made it reasonable to
treat strangers as honorary friends."
There follow several really
interesting chapters on various mechanisms, both internal
and external, that have arisen to facilitate such cooperation
-- the taste for reciprocity, the institution of money, banking
and its various disorders, systems of professional authority.
He then examines other instances
of exchange among strangers with a view to identifying and
treating some of the undesirable side effects that arise from
market activity -- in cities, among systems for the provision
of water, in auctions of all sorts, non-market institutions
such as families and firms, and the community of science that
he describes as "a division of labor among generations."
Seabright is a hard man to
follow, for, as well as he writes, he eschews both the conventional
unambiguous rhetoric of economics (now mostly mathematical)
and many of its standard gambits (the topic of rationality
doesn't come up for extended examination where you would expect
it, for example, having been eclipsed by "tunnel vision.")
What place for the propensity to truck and barter if the emphasis
is on the system of facial recognition and mimicry that underlies
everyday human interaction?
The results are a series of
hints, glimpses, promises, exhilarating starts and sudden
stops -- all rather like watching a familiar landscape illuminated
by lightning in the midst of a great thunderstorm and thus
finding it newly enchanted.
Reassuringly, many of the
institutions that Seabright singles out as being central to
trust among human beings are the same as those identified
by Bernstein -- extensive property rights, for example, beginning
with methods of assuring physical safety. He takes matters
to a deeper level by examining the cognitive and emotional
apparatus that permits us to decide who to trust, and when.
Yet the overall tone of the
book is one of foreboding -- a fear that "the shy, murderous
ape" from who we evolved could re-emerge suddenly, at
least locally, without warning. The book ends, not surprisingly,
with a chapter about the heightened fear of strangers that
has accompanied the threat of terrorism.
And if its nostalgia for the
symmetries of the Cold War seems a little misplaced ("Trust
grows more naturally between two wolves than between a wolf
and a sheep, and no amount of sincere protestation addressed
from the wolf to the sheep can alter this melancholy fact"),
at least its approach invites our attention to some of the
more interesting developments of the post 9/11 world. These
are the vast new computer-driven screening and surveillance
systems, now in their earliest engineering stages, which are
intended to routinely check the bona fides of the legions of our "honorary friends."
It is difficult to avoid the
feeling that it may be premature to attempt to show how economics
is changing in response to discoveries in genetics, physiology,
anthropology and psychology. The excitement is real. And more
than one talented young person will take up social science
because of The Company of Strangers. But the chase has barely begun.