It is quite another thing to identify the discipline's
galvanizing events from the perspective of those inside
the field.
Such a chronicle of internal developments is, after all,
the way economists report their news to us. Until about
1960, the big news (it reached the public well after the
fact) had to do with the appearance of various books: Keynes'
The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
in 1936, Hicks' Value and Capital in 1939, Von Neumann
and Morgenstern's The Theory of Games and Economic Behavior
in 1944, Samuelson's Foundations of Economic Analysis
in 1948, Debreu's The Theory of Value in 1959, Friedman
and Schwartz' Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960
in 1963.
After that (and in many cases before), the most significant
contributions to economics are short, technical papers published
in journals: Ronald Coase's "The Problem of Social
Cost" in 1960; George Akerlof's "The Market for
'Lemons'" in 1970, Robert Lucas' "Expectations
and the Neutrality of Money" in 1972, Fisher Black
and Myron Scholes and Robert Merton's papers on options
pricing in 1973 and so on. An almost-serviceable definition
of a good economist is someone who reads the journals instead
of the newspapers.
A proper history of 20th-century economics would interweave
these narratives, internal and external, in order to produce
a coherent account of how those three unmistakable generations
came to coalesce, forming unities of experience and analysis
both inside the discipline and in countless countries round
the world.
It is a daunting task -- a task at once complicated and
somewhat simplified by the fact that, during the middle
third of the century, the economists developed a language
of their own. The spread of that language throughout economics
has made it harder to understand developments in any particular
sub-discipline.
"There is no question that economics underwent a
revolutionary change around a half century ago," wrote
Stanford University economist David Kreps in an under-noticed
article in Daedalus in 1997. "Mathematical modeling,
a small piece of the subject until the 1940s and 1950s,
became the all-encompassing (some would say suffocating)
language of the discipline." Formal reasoning had been
a part of the discipline for much longer than that, Kreps
noted, "but their embrace by the mainstream of the
profession came in this period."
What accounts for the triumph of formal methods? Kreps
continued, "The allure of mathematical modeling and
reasoning in economics come first and perhaps foremost from
the power it gives us to define our terms (say, 'efficiency')
precisely and unambiguously and to show that certain precise
assumptions lead to other precise conclusions. It also allows
us to stretch our analyses and to unify them
"
Logical consistency might not be a satisfying substitute
for controlled data, he continued, but it was better than
nothing as a goad to sharpness and discipline in theorizing.
The rise of powerful statistical methods was another factor.
There was, of course, still another advantage: "The
use of a powerful and somewhat obscure tool confers power
in the user."
In any event, the triumph of formal methods had resulted
in a kind of globalization of the core ideas of the field,
according to Kreps -- to a unification, that is,
if you are among the winners. There have always been many
different topical concerns within economics, he noted. They
include international trade, development, economic history,
labor markets, public finance (and, more recently, the interplay
of economic and political institutions), industrial organization
and so on. Before mathematicization, he noted, each of these
fields enjoyed "significant intellectual autonomy."
"The things a student would learn in, say, development
economics, would not resemble all that closely what was
taught in public finance. Emphasis was placed on typologies
and on the institutions that pertained to the subject in
question. There were, if you will, a number of regional
dialects of 'Economese,' dialects that were close to being
distinct languages."
As economics became more mathematical, as the power of
formal deductive methods became more apparent, these formally
semi-autonomous provinces succumbed gradually to mainstream
language, wrote Kreps. "This was not a matter of applied
fields recognizing the power of these new techniques and,
thus persuaded, welcoming them with open arms."
On the contrary, he wrote, acceptance was often grudging.
The process more often than not involved outright imperialism,
with an economist trained in mathematical technique invading
the topical domain of one of the applied fields and mathematicizing
it. There was a lot of resentment along the way.
But unification triumphed, and today the dialect of international
trade is very similar to the dialect of industrial organization,
of development and labor economics. Goodbye to the funny
accents, then. "Nowadays the languages used by different
branches of economics sound a lot more like branches of
a single methodological (rather than topical) tongue."
So here's the point: the process of unification usually
has entailed paying a price in relevance, meaning a temporary
reduction in what was studied. In Development, Geography
and Economic Theory, economist Paul Krugman offered
a parable about mapping Africa. He described how various
improvements in map-making techniques in the mid-18th century
resulted in an emptying -- out of the interior of the subcontinent
in newly-published maps, until explorers equipped with chronographs
and sextants could deliver reliable information about the
remote features of "the Dark Continent."
Details previously based on folklore -- some of it accurate,
some of it not -- gave way to blank space on the maps. In
a way, Europeans had become more ignorant about Africa than
they had been before," wrote Krugman -- but only for
a time. Then the details were filled it.
In a similar way, Kreps cites economist Paul Romer's use
of the figure of an hourglass to describe what happens when
formalization comes to a previously descriptive field. "The
vertical axis represents time, and the horizontal axis the
scope or breadth of economics. As time passes, we see first
a narrowing of topical concerns as the language is unified
and then a widening of concerns as the language develops."
The "narrowing" doesn't mean those topical concerns
disappear, during the interval when economists are ill-equipped
to deal with them, any more than travelers to Africa stopped
caring about what lay in the interior during the decades
when mapmakers had no answers to their questions.
Sometimes these concerns were preserved as literary economics,
in pockets of resistance such as development economics and
institutional economics. Sometimes they were ignored. "Rather
than speak in an unfashionable dialect, some things were
just not discussed," wrote Kreps.
In every case, however, there is a conservation of curiosity.
Economists address the questions they can answer. The rest
of us go on asking questions whose answers we want to know,
whether it is technically feasible to answer them or not.
It is precisely at this point that often economics can be
seen to evolve in response to outside influences, according
to Kreps.
During the Depression it was persistent unemployment of
25 percent; more recently, curiosity about Japanese production
techniques, the German system of workplace co-determination,
the impact of venture capital on newly-created American
firms.
This is not an easy matter to disentangle and convey,
much less nail down. Implicit in the image of the hourglass,
or the parable of mapping Africa, is the view that ideas
expressed in literary language in one generation are rendered
crudely in mathematical terms in the next, then refined
in the third and subsequent generations to a subtlety and
precision that can be achieved in no other way. That seems
to be the way that economists experience progress in their
field.
Can this highly internal view of economics going forward
be related to the external story -- to the sequence of successive
generations whose concerns were dominated by the Great Depression
and World War II, by the Cold War, by Perestroika?
I don't know. It should be possible. And starting in two
weeks, and thereafter at about monthly intervals, I am going
to try -- beginning the story of the man who succeeded John
Maynard Keynes as the dominating figure in the public eye
among economists of the next generation.