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Voices in the Air
EconomicPrincipals.com began on March 17, 2002, with
a view to providing sustained coverage of developments in the community
of technical economics, for an audience of well-informed citizens
who possess above-average curiosity about the subject. In its haste
to be up and running, it just began.
Now it is time to take a breath and say something
about it methods and goals. Its animating principle, as near as
I can tell, is a mechanism called collaborative filtering. Of that,
more in a minute.
A word first about what is filtered here, and filtered
by the readers in their turn -- that is, about the beat that EconomicPrincipals
seeks to cover.
That something important goes on in universities has
been a commonplace since Keynes' memorable peroration near the end
of The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money in
1936.
"
The ideas of economists and political
philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong,
are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed, the world
is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to
be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the
slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear
voices in the air, are usually distilling their frenzy from some
academic scribbler of a few years back."
Often we think of these influences as emanating from
a conversation among a few worldly philosophers engaged in lofty
discourse over time about the tendencies of human history. And surely
that is part of what economics is about.
But as Jurg Niehans notes, the flip side of the view
that the past was an age of giants is the implication that the present
is "an age of pygmies engaged in agitated babble.'' This may
not be the best way to think about what is going on today in economics.
Niehans is a retired theorist who wrote much the
best history yet of post-war developments. In A
History of Economic Theory: Classic Contributions 1720-1980,
he places in perspective the contributions of major figures including
John Hicks, John von Neumann, Paul Samuelson, Tjalling Koopmans,
Milton Friedman, Kenneth Arrow and Robert Lucas, with dry wit and
surgical precision.
It is true, as the University of Chicago's Roger
Myerson says, that Niehans gives short shrift to developments in
game theory. Niehans spent his life thinking about interdependence,
not strategy, and his book appeared in 1980, a few years before
the gains in game theory became unmistakable to those outside the
field. That means that we can look for another good history one
of these days -- by someone else.
It means, too, that there is room for continuing
coverage of news about economics. That a great deal has happened
since Keynes is now mostly a matter for historians. That a great
deal has happened since Niehans -- indeed, that Niehans happened
at all -- is news.
The task here is to keep track of people who daily
are making economics happen -- not all of them, nor even most of
them, but perhaps the most interesting among them. Sometimes that
means an account of a new monograph or book (Even though journal
articles are the sine qua non of successful careers, books
often sum up a skein of work or otherwise offer important benchmarks.)
Sometimes a novel policy proposal in a hot field
itself is news. Sometimes a critic of the established order may
be profiled. Sometimes a quick snapshot is offered of a complicated
body of work. Always the emphasis is on the provisional. News, it
has been said, is the best that can be said quickly.
Plenty of technology is involved in economics. Markets
of all sorts contribute a continuous fount of new practices. Eric
Von Hippel has shown that the sources of innovation vary widely
among industries, and economics is no exception. The conventional
linear model, in which established manufacturers of new ideas routinely
perceive a need and then produce to order, is almost surely misleading.
New ideas spring from many sources, including (sometimes)
those deemed to be outside the field, even crackpots. It was an
engineer, Tustin Arnold, who first suggested in the early 1950s
that economists might find control theory to be a useful tool. (Rocket
science since has transformed the field.) The effect of the "supply-side"
insurgency on economics' mainstream has yet to be gauged. The policy
here is to cast the net wide, to include consumers of economic ideas
as well as producers of them.
In other words, this site functions like a newspaper
column. Indeed, a newspaper column it used to be. The plan going
forward is to stick to the newspaper model, to play by newspaper
rules.
And that's where collaborative filtering comes in.
It's a fancy name for the mechanics that underlay word-of-mouth
advertising. Its application in practice is very old. Newspapers,
scientific journals, markets in general all depend on it -- any
exchange in which reputation is a dominant consideration. But collaborative
filtering made waves when it was formally "discovered"
and named by economists, mathematicians, computer scientists and
others in the mid-90s. These are "voices in the air" worth
tuning in.
Since then, collaborative filtering has become the
engine behind Google, the increasingly dominant Internet search
engine that lists the most frequently-linked sites first. The new
technology is beginning to shape e-commerce as well. Recommender
systems are popping up here and there all over the Web ("This
seller is rated: four stars). Collaborative filtering is even threatening
to transform scientific publishing, by reducing or even eliminating
that familiar figure, the overworked referee. Berkeley
Economic Press is the early leader in law and economics.
The mechanism of collaborative filtering is especially
clear in the recent emergence of the phenomenon of "blogging,"
as web-log writing has come to be known. A form of self-publishing
made possible by cheap computing and the World Wide Web, blogging
has empowered anyone who wishes to post a more or less continuous
stream of commentary on any conceivable subject. To start a blog
of your own, right now, for free, no kidding, click here.
Finding an audience is something else again. Many
are started, but only a relative handful of blogs is cited over
and over again. Collaborative filtering is at work. In the case
of the Blogosphere, the qualities that are evaluated are the elusive
constellation of traits that, taken together, add up to good journalism.
And when a new blog comes up -- one of my favorites is a quantitative
survey of partisanship among op-ed columnists called Lying
in Ponds -- it rises or fall on the strength of the links (the
citations) it is able to attract from others. The Alphonse-Gaston
effects here can be quite intricate -- just the sort of thing that
economists are good at figuring out.
Technically speaking, the field here can be described
at "the market for evaluations." That is the title of
a famous paper in the American Economic Review by Chris Avery, Paul
Resnick and Richard Zeckhauser that introduced collaborative filtering
to economists in June of 1999.Academic and commercial research has
been underway for years. For an example of collaborative filtering
of jokes, try Jester.
At the Reputations
Research Network the idea is to put on-line information about
past performance to work in order "to help people decide who
to trust; to encourage people to be more trustworthy; and to discourage
those who are not trustworthy from participating."
Blogs come in all flavors. Thus KausFiles
is mostly political. Man
Without Qualities has a legal spin (and a typical set of links
to other bloggers.) John
Ellis writes about "business, technology, politics, golf,
media, advertising, P2P, genomics and other subjects of interest."
A good survey
of the Blogosphere by Catherine Seipp appears in the current American
Journalism Review. None mention collaborative filtering. This sort
of connection between theory and practice is what this column
exists to report.
In that sense, EconomicPrincipals is a small part
of a huge conversation about economics. It is more than a restaurant
review. It is different from a newspaper column aimed at a geographic
community. Do you have a friend who possesses above-average curiosity
about technical economics? Hit the tools button on your browser
taskbar and send this link. Collaborate!
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