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Making Progress
One of the payoffs of recent developments is that
the government's economic management task no longer is narrowly
conceived as consisting of making fiscal and monetary policy, and
keeping channels open for free trade. In recent years, innovation
policy has muscled onto the center stage as well.
For those who like to follow these matters up close
and personal, the most recent event is the appearance this week
of William Baumol's book-length survey of the literature of industrial
organization and economic growth, The Free-Market Innovation
Machine: Analyzing the Growth Miracle of Capitalism.
Baumol, born in 1922, is an especially well-respected
but relatively little-known member of economics' "greatest
generation" -- those who in the 1940s and '50s translated the
analytical tools of economics into mathematical language and fashioned
them into as coherent whole.
Baumol even could be called "little-remembered"
in some circles, given that he served as president of the American
Economic Association as long ago as 1981. A sculptor and actor and
student of the arts, he could have closed down entirely his dual
appointments at Princeton and New York Universities.
Instead he has remained a vigorous contributor to
the re-energized debate about the nature and causes of the wealth
of nations, thanks to his landmark 1986 study (with Sue Anne Batey
Blackman and Edward Wolff) Productivity and American Leadership:
The Long View. That study ventured that reports of US economic
decline had been greatly exaggerated.
The Free-Market Innovation Machine isn't that
mythical beast, the one-time book about growth that businessfolk
and lay persons can read with pleasure. But it is a wise commentary
on what has changed since Baumol's youth, when Karl Marx and Joseph
Schumpeter were virtually the only economists who could be said
to have built innovation into their systems.
It also demonstrates how far professional economists
have come from the 1970s, when books like The Incredible Bread
Machine and The Vital Few were all the more support that
could be found for those who considered that innovation policy to
be the real key to managing a vigorous capitalist economy.
For those interested in the issues on the table today,
however, a meeting on innovation policy and the economy in Washington
D.C. last week was the place to be. It was the third such annual
briefing by leading research economists to be sponsored by the National
Bureau of Economic Research. The room was full of boffins from Capitol
Hill and various science-lobbying organizations.
Josh Lerner and Paul Gompers of the Harvard Business
School cautioned against a knee-jerk response to recent expressions
of alarm about a venture capital bust. After all, the business is
notoriously cyclical, they said. Better the government should work
on enhancing the demand for venture funding rather than seeking
to increase the supply. Measures like the Bayh-Dole Act of 1980
and the Federal Technology Transfer Act of 1986 had been strikingly
successful in creating new opportunities, by easing entrepreneurs'
access to the latest advances in knowledge. Periodic capital gains
tax cuts seem to have helped as well.
Dennis Carlton and Rob Gertler of the University
of Chicago explained how emerging doctrines of intellectual property
increasingly are colliding with old-fashioned antitrust law, with
still-to-be-determined results. Such collisions are at the heart
of the Microsoft case, with its crucial distinction between open
systems and closed. One body of law creates market power in order
to reward innovation; the other seeks to constrain it. The ins and
outs of innovation-based competition are a long way from being thoroughly
and widely understood.
Federal support for R&D in the antiterrorism era
isn't likely to change very much, according to Stanford's Roger
Noll, an expert of the distributive politics that underlie "the
technology pork barrel" that he (and Linda Cohen) identified
in the early '90s. An upswing in federal R&D from its post-Cold
War lows was well underway long before the events of 9/11. Both
defense and non-defense spending were growing again. Indeed, if
a serious anti-terrorism effect does materialize, probably its effect
would be negative. Spending on R&D of all kinds fell during
the Vietnam War, for example. There were too many superior claims.
Third World development was the topic of Jeffrey Sachs'
talk. The world's best-know economic clinician made a strong case
for targeting the institutions of technology transfer. Even the
poorest countries need good universities to tailor the tools of
modernity to their often-inhospitable local terrain, he said.
But perhaps the most interesting paper of all had
to do with a proposal to make pharmaceutical products more widely
available in poor countries, without diminishing big drug companies'
incentives to innovate. Jean O. Lanjouw, of Yale University and
the Center for Global Development, noted the widespread antagonism
to the routine extension of full intellectual property rights that
accompanied the establishment of the World Trade Organization at
the end of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations. A more acceptable
system has to be found if global comity is to be maintained, she
said.
Lanjouw proposed a differential pricing scheme whereby
patent holders on medicines for global diseases would have to chose
between being protected in rich countries, or in poor countries,
but not both. Protection in the huge markets in industrial nations
would provide incentives to new drug development for cancer, for
instance, but their benefits would diffuse quickly to the rest of
the world. Patents for medicines intended for non-global diseases
(malaria, for example) would be allowed protection world-wide.
Such is the flavor of what is going on in one of economics'
hottest fields. There is plenty here to keep reformers busy for
many years to come.
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